When the Adjudicator Gets It Wrong

The NBA today took the unusual step of announcing that referees erred in not calling a foul against Utah's C.J. Miles on the last play of last night's wild Jazz-Thunder game. A foul call would have given Oklahoma City's Kevin Durant, down one point, three free throws to potentially win the game. You can review the play below by fast-forwarding to the 1:50 mark of the video (and see the slow-motion replay at 2:07):



I have two thoughts in response to this incident. First, a frequent theme here at JPO has been our revulsion over the inconsistency of foul calls in the NBA, particularly late in the fourth quarter and when star players are involved. (The epitome of this failing, of course, was the original "JPO" play in 1998.) In this Miles-Durant tiff, the duskiness of the timing suggests that I should want to see a foul called, yet the brightness of Durant's renown favors a bias to see Durant not get bailed out. Thus, emotionally, I am not sure how to view either last night's result or the NBA's communication today. Watching the video, it seemed like Miles swiped part ball and part skin, though it would be very difficult to notice that in real time on the floor. So perhaps I should be upset that the referees "swallowed their whistle" in the game's final second, regardless of the identity of the shooter.

My second thought, more analytically, is puzzlement at the NBA's decision to publicly overrule their referees. The NBA rulebook is a body of law. Here in our common-law American domain, law is administered and enforced by a panoply of police, executive bureaucrats, judges, and juries. Law is often thought to be grindingly slow. Accused criminals sometimes languish in detention for months or years while their case is advanced; the "Enron" bankruptcy case lasted over seven years. Law is complicated, and, apparently, our society has decided that we prefer to "get it right" rather than "do it fast" — even if that means financial disputes remain unresolved for ages and people's freedom is abridged. Additionally, criminal and civil litigants are allowed two levels of appellate review should they be dissatisfied with an original decision.


However, the NBA cannot afford such deliberation. By contrast to public law, NBA rules are administered by three referees alone. Games are unique events that depend on the physical presence of two sets of players under particular environmental conditions. Games cannot be tabled, postponed, or repeated! Thus, appellate review is extremely limited. Certain decisions may be reviewed by referees (the same agents who originally made such decisions) by video during the course of the game, but no higher power may intervene and game outcomes are final once completed. [On extremely rare occasions, Commissioner Stern has the sole authority to grant a re-play in the event of "gross negligence" relating to an objectively documentable mis-application of a game rule. This happened most recently in 2007-08, involving Atlanta and Miami. Prior to that, it had not occurred since Stern took over the league in 1984.]

I write the above two paragraphs to point out that what's done is done. Without appellate review, the NBA really should stand behind its referees to reinforce the psychic finality of disputed finishes. I don't see the public value in overruling a referee. The announcement is moot, so why embarrass him? A Supreme Court justice could shrug her shoulders and say "Yeah, those trial judges screw up sometimes, but that's all right." The public will understand, because decisions ain't over after the trial verdict. But when NBA games are final, an admission of fallibility only frustrates fans. Why do that? The foul call was ambiguous enough that some viewers of the video might "see" whatever the league tells them to. (Have you ever noticed that a pro wrestling match looks a whole lot faker when you turn off the announcers' audio?) To be sure, the league should do all it can behind the scenes to adequately train officials, but in front of the press it should try whatever is necessary (without straining credulity) to persuade fans of referee competence. Even if Commissioner Stern truly laments his refs' failure to call the foul on Miles last night, he should make like President George W. Bush and decline to admit his mistakes.

Toronto and Chicago Fight to the Finish

The Toronto Raptors lead the Chicago Bulls for the 8th spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs by just one game with 6 games remaining. Toronto sits at 38-38; Chicago, at 37-39.
Were the two teams to end up tied after 82 games, Toronto would prevail, having already clinched the head-to-head season series against Chicago, by winning on November 11th and December 5th. The two teams will play each other again in Chicago on April 11th.

Toronto's remaining schedule is: Cavs, Celtics, Hawks, Bulls, Pistons, Knicks.
Chicago's remaining schedule is: Bucks, Cavs, Nets, Raptors, Celtics, Bobcats.

Both teams will play Cleveland, which may not try very hard in remaining games, given that they have virtually clinched the top Eastern seed. Both teams will also play the Celtics, who are fighting against Atlanta (and perhaps Miami, charging hard from the #5 position) for playoff positioning.
Atlanta, also jockeying for their playoff spot, will be a tough matchup for Toronto; the Pistons and Knicks, each suffering through a lost season, will be easy. The Bobcats, if they are still fighting for playoff rank on the last day, could be a tough matchup for Chicago, while the Milwaukee Bucks (sans Andrew Bogut) and New Jersey Nets will be easy.

Who will make the playoffs, Chicago or Toronto? Given the symmetry of remaining opponents, and Toronto's existing lead, I would bet on Toronto. However, a few factors militate in Chicago's favor.

First, although Toronto has home court for the April 11th tussle, Toronto's home record is only 24-14, hardly juggernautic. Having attended multiple NBA games in both Toronto and Chicago, I believe that the Air Canada Centre fans treat a Raps experience as more of a carnival, while Bulls fans are ready to see blood drawn. (Let us recall that Illinois legalized mixed martial arts a couple years ago, while we learned last month that Ontarians are apparently too squeamish for the UFC.)

Chicago's Joakim Noah has recovered from his plantar fascitis issues that dogged him last month; he has averaged 11 points and 11 boards in his last three games. Noah's absence from February 27th – March 19th coincided precisely with a 10-game losing streak by the Bulls. Since his return, they have won 6 of 8. With the NCAA Final Four recently concluded, we should note that Noah has twice proved himself the best player on a championship team.

Meanwhile, Toronto does not have any significant injury issues, yet they still lost 9 of 10 around the same time the Bulls similarly floundered. A team scrapping for the playoffs should not lose a nail-biter to Golden State. They simply are not confident right now, particularly with the uncertainty over Chris Bosh's future plans.

In short, I pick the Bulls to make the playoffs. If the Bulls finish the remaining six games by winning at least two more than Toronto (e.g. if the Bulls finish 4-2 and the Raptors finish 2-4) then those Hogtowners will be goin' fishing just eight days from now.

Frankly, I think Toronto should not try to make the playoffs, in any event. The gate revenue might loom as shiny lucre, but I don't believe the Raptors' ultimate owner, the Ontario Teachers Pension Plan, has any liquidity problems. They would be better-served to invest in the Raps' long-term success. Sadly, the Raptors squad as presently constituted probably cannot get much better; it seems foolhardy to expect Demar Derozan or Andrea Bargnani to progress much beyond their present level. Chris Bosh will likely leave this summer as a free agent, and then the Raptors would behoove themselves to quickly trade overpaid non-contributors such as Hedo Turkoglu and Jose Calderon and thus clear salary room for a rebuilding project. Thus, there is little value in trying to attain playoff experience for the current squad, as their institutional memory will be quickly dissolved. Even if Toronto could make the playoffs, Cleveland would wax them, much like they swept through Detroit in 2009.

It is sad that Toronto's two cracks at contendership since the franchise began in 1995 (once with Vince Carter and then again with Chris Bosh) have both failed. This is what happens when you attempt to build a team around a sub-MVP-level player with no other All-Star to complement him.
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UPDATE: After I posted that, Chris Bosh of Toronto suffered an injury to his nose on Tuesday night, April 6th. Hopefully it will not be serious.

Hall of Fame 2010: Who Got Shut Out?

Today the Basketball Hall of Fame announced its 2010 inductees, which include Scottie Pippen, Karl Malone, Dennis Johnson, Cynthia Cooper, Jerry Buss, and Bob Hurley Sr. I cannot quarrel with any of these decisions.

From the original list of nominees, losing candidates include:
(1) Players: Jamaal Wilkes, Chris Mullin, Bernard King, Richard Guerin, Gus Johnson, and Maciel Pereira;
(2) Coaches: Don Nelson, Tex Winter, Harley Redin, and Vladimir Kondrashin;
(3) Teams: 1960 U.S. Men's Olympic team; 1992 U.S. Men's Olympic team; All-American Redheads

Most of the players above do not strike me as HOF material. Wilkes, Mullin, and King were fine small forwards in a SF-happy decade, but did not distinguish themselves as championship-level players. Guerin and Johnson retired over thirty years ago; why should we consider them now?

Pereira probably deserves the honor as the avatar of Brazilian ball.

Coach Nelson has been at his craft a long time, hence his near-record win total, but has never been held as a peer of truly great coaches such as Larry Brown, Gregg Popovich, Phil Jackson, and Jerry Sloan. Witness the 2005-06 Dallas Mavericks: after several years of playoff underachievement, Nelson resigned and Avery Johnson took the team to the Finals just 15 months later. So keep this guy out of the Hall.

Coach Winter has helped Phil Jackson earn nine NBA championships as an offensive consultant, but never delivered HOF-type results as a head coach in his own right. He may have helped Kansas State reach the NCAA Final Four twice, but let us not forget that the NIT Tournament was the more prestigious contest back in the '50s. With all due respect, Winter does not deserve a spot.

Coach Kondrashin surely deserves it for building Russian (Soviet) hoops into a stalwart and thereby spreading a zest for the game. Without him, there might be no Kirilenko or Prokhorov, and nowhere for the Trajon Langdons to ply their trade.

Coach Redin compiled a 87% winning record at Wayland Baptist University. However, I must admit that I do not understand enough context of women's college basketball in the 1960s to opine as to the magnitude of this achievement. I cannot answer this one.

I am not sure what the criteria for Hall of Fame teams should be. All of the teams above were dominant and are now regarded as legendary, so induct them all, I say.
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UPDATE: After I wrote the above, news emerged on the afternoon of April 5th, indicating that Pereira, the 1960 US team, and the 1992 US team will all be inducted.

NBA and Urban Planning

Among other reasons to rejoice in each NBA city, we must note that many NBA arenas have been constructed with a judicious regard for land-use and planning concerns. Rather than occupying scarce real estate in a city center (and even more space with broad parking lots), many basketball buildings sit over commuter rail train hubs:

Boston's TD Garden (formerly "Fleet Center"), built over North Station, which serves commuter rail lines stretching into Massachusetts's North Shore;

New York's Madison Square Garden, sitting across the street from the above-ground Penn Station and directly over the rail tracks (A full accounting of MSG and Penn Station, however, must document how the former, more beautiful Penn Station structure was demolished in the 1960s, leaving many observers aghast, to allow the construction of the current MSG. See Mad Men Season 3 for a dramatization of this controversy);

Toronto's Air Canada Centre, sitting directly adjacent to downtown Union Station and over some of the rail lines;

In Brooklyn, the proposed Atlantic Yards development, which we previously discussed at length on this blog, would position a new NBA arena directly over (i) the largest MTA station in Brooklyn and (ii) a terminus of the Long Island Railroad;

In Sacramento, a proposed new NBA arena would sit directly above a new regional transit center, according to plans announced in January 2010.

However, many cities do not adhere to this model:

In Washington DC, Union Station sits on the northeast side of town, near the US Supreme Court building, presaging a transition from the political corridor of the city into more residential, and, unfortunately, more downtrodden neighborhoods. Meanwhile, the Verizon Center proudly gleams in Chinatown near many law firms and courthouses.

In Chicago, Union Station and Ogilvie Station are positioned approximately two blocks west of the "Loop" downtown district, and an arena would fit snugly there. (Soldier Field is only about ten blocks south of the Loop, immediately on the lakefront.) However, the Bulls' and Blackhawks' arena is about one further mile west of Union Station in the West Loop / Near West Side neighborhood. Perhaps the thought was that Chicagoans preternaturally must come by car, and an arena without several acres of parking lots could not thrive.

In Los Angeles, Union Station and Staples Center are both generally downtown, but a couple miles apart.

In Detroit, the Pistons' venerable, 22-year-old arena sits in the affluent Oakland County suburbs, laughingly eschewing anything like "public transit" or "ties to the city".

In Memphis... well, seriously? Commuter rail in Memphis Tennessee? As if pigs could fly! When I visited this town last year, there were barely enough people to fill up the downtown two-block Beale Street tourist district. Outside Beale, most retail storefronts I saw were empty, waiting to be leased. It is unfortunate.

In Milwaukee, the Bradley Center sits about 1 mile away from the Amtrak station. Both are roughly in the downtown core (in fact, the arena may be the city's greatest draw, making viable a surrounding ring of taverns), but without a car it is not realistic to sally from one to the other.

Throughout southern and western metropolises, actually, where population is less densely packed, commuter rail systems just aren't there.

I cannot say what the right model is. I note that, unlike baseball and football, "tailgating" is not a hoary tradition at basketball or hockey games. Additionally, basketball fans tend to be more urban in character, and we also know that teams make their money by selling courtside seats to suburban-residing business folk, who often take commuter rail into the city. I know little about the substantive urban planning issues here, so I would certainly appreciate feedback.

Assessing MJ as Charlotte's Head Guy

Last week I assessed Michael Jordan's job performance as head of basketball operations for the Washington Wizards from 2000-2003. My co-bloggers, away from this forum, have granted that he muffed his DC assignment, but yet have entered in a spirited colloquy as to the quality of Jordan's job performance since becoming head of basketball operations for the Charlotte Bobcats in June 2006. Let us assess his record with respect to three categories: draft picks, player transactions, and building a coaching/management team.

I. DRAFT PICKS

Jordan has helmed the Bobcats for four drafts now, starting in 2006. For each first-round draft pick, I will list the player chosen by Jordan, along with the five players chosen immediately afterwards in sequence.

2006: Adam Morrison
Next selected candidates: Tyrus Thomas, Shelden Williams, Randy Foye, Brandon Roy, Rudy Gay
Verdict: This was a horrible pick. Thomas, Williams, and Foye have disappointed in the pros, but at least they have played better than Morrison. Roy has made three All-Star teams, and Gay has played at a near-All-Star level.

2007: Brandan Wright (Wright was immediately traded to GSW for Jason Richardson.)
Next: Joakim Noah, Spencer Hawes, Acie Law, Thaddeus Young, Julian Wright
Verdict: Brandan Wright has been injured for much of his three-year NBA tenure, so this choice is hard to judge. We do know that Noah, Hawes, and Young have revealed themselves to be legitimate NBA starters, and Noah has performed at a near-All-Star level for Chicago.

2008: D.J. Augustin
Next: Brook Lopez, Jerryd Bayless, Jason Thompson, Brandon Rush, Anthony Randolph
Verdict: Lopez looks like a quality starting center and potential All-Star for the next decade. The other four players have shown great promise as well. Augustin had a nice rookie year, but has seen his minutes, percentages, and general production decline across the board in 2009-10. Not a good pick.

2008: Alexis Ajinca
Next: Ryan Anderson, Courtney Lee, Kosta Koufos, Serge Ibaka, Nicolas Batum
Verdict: Lee started on a Finals team. Batum has started almost all his games for Portland, a serious playoff team, in his first two seasons. Anderson contributes to a title contender in Orlando, and Ibaka recently acquired the moniker "Dr. Nasty" for his work in Oklahoma. Meanwhile, who is Alexis Ajinca? Apparently he has only played in 6 games this entire season.

2009: Gerald Henderson
Next: Tyler Hansbrough, Earl Clark, Austin Daye, James Johnson, Jrue Holiday
Verdict:All these players save Holiday have seen middling results in their rookie seasons. 65 games is probably too soon to assess the long-term wisdom of a draft selection. But still, Henderson averages 8 minutes and 2 points per game, disappointing for a lottery pick.

I give Jordan a D grade as a drafter.

II. ROSTER TRANSACTIONS

Summer 2006: Signed Othella Harrington, Jake Voskuhl, Walter Herrmann as free agents

June 2007: Traded lottery pick Brandan Wright to GSW for Jason Richardson

December 2007: Traded Walter Herrmann and Primoz Brezec to Detroit for Nazr Mohammed

January 2008: Signed Earl Boykins as a free agent

August 2008: Signed Shannon Brown as a free agent

December 2008: Traded Jason Richardson and Jared Dudley to Phoenix for Raja Bell, Boris Diaw, and Sean Singletary

January 2009: Traded Matt Carroll and Ryan Hollins to Dallas for Desagana Diop

February 2009: Traded Adam Morrison and Shannon Brown to Los Angeles for Vladimir Radmanovic

July 2009: Traded Emeka Okafor to New Orleans for Tyson Chandler

September 2009: Signed Stephen Graham as free agent

November 2009: Traded Raja Bell and Radmanovic to Golden State for Stephen Jackson and Acie Law

February 2010: Traded Flip Murray and Acie Law to Chicago for Tyrus Thomas

February 2010: Traded a second-round draft pick for Theo Ratliff

March 2010: signed Larry Hughes

Verdict: Most of these transactions were fairly inconsequential. The trade of Jason Richardson was presumably necessary because new coach Larry Brown was not fond of J-Rich's defense-free ways.

The best transaction above was the acquisition of Stephen Jackson at the beginning of this season. Despite his complaining out in Oakland, Jackson's defensive fire and emotional leadership, filling a need on a team formerly led by the laconic Gerald Wallace, have helped to propel Charlotte into a playoff spot for the first time in the team's six years.

The worst transaction on this list has to be the Okafor-Chandler trade. In nine NBA campaigns, Chandler has averaged double figures in points only once, and double figures in rebounds only twice: all when he played with PG extraordinaire Chris Paul. He also has missed nearly 70 games to foot injury during the past two seasons, including 31 this season. Prior to that trade, Oklahoma City almost traded for Chandler in February 2009, but rescinded the deal when Chandler's former surgeon looked at his medical records and pronounced him a walking suture. Meanwhile, Okafor averaged a double-double in each of his first five seasons, and is only 0.8 RPG shy of a double-double for 2009-10. After missing time in his second and third seasons, he has been quite durable in 2007-08, 2008-09, and 2009-10, playing in 235 of 235 possible games. It is true that Chandler's contract expires in June 2011, while Okafor is extended through 2014, so perhaps the extra financial flexibility is a plus for Charlotte. Still, on the court this had terrible results.

I give Jordan a B grade as a roster steward.

III. MANAGEMENT STAFF

Upon joining the Bobcats in 2006, Jordan wisely opted to retain coach Bernie Bickerstaff, who had piloted a young and raw squad through its first two seasons together. By mutual agreement, Jordan and BB decided at the end of 2006-07 (a 33-49 campaign) that the team needed a fresh voice.

In May 2007, Jordan named Sam Vincent, a former Chicago teammate of Jordan, as the Bobs' new head coach. This was probably a poor decision, as Vincent had only one season of prior NBA assistant experience on his résumé. The Bobcats regressed, winning 32 games (one fewer than the previous season) in 2007-08.

Around the same time he hired Vincent, Jordan began searching for a new general manager, an underling of sorts to Jordan's role as head of basketball operations. Jordan hired Rod Higgins, who had played with Jordan in Chicago during MJ's rookie season, 1984-85. This penchant for choosing old cronies (detailed in my prior post, wherein I described Jordan's hiring of Charles Oakley and Bryon Russell) likely does not result in the selection of the most outstanding candidates.

In April 2008, Jordan fired Vincent as head coach and hired Larry Brown, who had not been seriously employed since leaving the Knicks' head coaching job in a bitter split two years prior. Brown, a fellow UNC alum, represented a sizable risk, as his average tenure in his eight previous NBA coaching jobs was 3 years per stop. Brown tends to get "itchy" after seeing a few autumns and springs go by in the same place. Who can blame him, really? If I had the chance to get paid millions and experience life in multiple world-class cities, I would surely take it. Still, Brown has done a good job with Charlotte, improving from 32 wins in 2007-08 to 35 wins in 2008-09 and, based on current projections, 44 wins this year. Making the playoffs is difficult without a slam-dunk All-Star player on your roster, so Brown deserves great credit. Thus far, this was a good decision by Jordan.

Unfortunately, the roster seems to be "maxed out"; without any major stars, the team cannot ascend to a championship level, and Brown's championship experience will be for naught. Jordan faces major challenges in determining how to improve the roster without destroying it first.

I give Jordan a B-minus grade for his management team decisions.

Jordan's Performance in DC

Via ESPN's Truehoop, I note that new Bobcats owner Michael Jordan attempted today to take credit for the success of the Washington Wizards over the last decade:

When I first got to Washington, people didn’t understand the financial position that team was facing. In Washington we put together a five year plan that included clearing huge salaries off the books to create cap flexibility, and building a roster that would become a playoff contender. In just three years, we went from almost $22 million over the cap to more than $8 million under, and traded veterans with big contracts for young talent. In year five, with a roster made up mostly of guys we brought in, they made the playoffs.

Let us review the chronology of Jordan's tenure with the Wizards, however.

Jordan was hired to run the Wizards' basketball operations midway through the 1999-2000 season. He was fired by owner Abe Pollin in May 2003 just after the regular season concluded. (You will recall that in that period he also decided to return as a player, an oddly self-indulgent decision.)

Following the MJ departure, the Wizards signed Gilbert Arenas, previously of Golden State, as a free agent in July 2003 and acquired Antawn Jamison by trade (for Jerry Stackhouse, Christian Laettner, and a draft pick which became Devin Harris) in July 2004. The Wizards finally made the playoffs, with Arenas and Jamison as their best players, in April 2005. They went on to make the playoffs in 2006, 2007, and 2008.

Jordan clearly was not responsible for the acquisition of those two players (or for Caron Butler, who was acquired in a trade with the L.A. Lakers in the summer of 2005), who together proved to be the core of the Wizards' playoff half-beast. It really is not clear to me what role he played in the construction of that team. His major acquisitions for the Wizards — Laettner, Kwame Brown, Larry Hughes, and Stackhouse — were all gone by July 2005.

In 2002 he also signed his gambling buddy Charles Oakley as a free agent and his one-time nemesis Bryon Russell, probably so that, as a GM-player, he could settle the controversy from his original "push off" (the genesis of this blog's name) against Russell in 1998. He also traded away promising young guard Richard Hamilton, who eventually proved to be the starter on a six-time conference finals team, because Hamilton had rubbed Jordan wrongly on the court.

I certainly hope that he does a better job with Charlotte than he did with Washington.

Bulls v. Mavericks Recap

Last Saturday, March 6th, one-third of the JPO team walked into the hall of haram, the jardin of Jordan, that bastion of bollocks, Chicago’s United Center. I've made no secret that since my childhood, I've been no fan of the Bulls. Yet for non-basketball-fanhood reasons I find myself living in Chicago now, so there is but one place to go to witness NBA action. For the third time this season, I steeled myself to the odium that permeates Bulls games for me, and settled down to watch Vinny Del Negro’s bunch scrap out 48 hard minutes.

On this night Chicago drew Dallas, which has improved its roster and said roster’s “swag” quite a bit since trading for Brendan Haywood, Caron Butler, and Deshawn Stevenson in February. Despite the talent gap, Chicago hung tight with the Mavericks, eventually losing by six points. Through video illustration (thank you Mom and Dad for that new camera!) I want to highlight three areas in the development of both teams: (i) Derrick Rose's improving jump shot, (ii) the Mavericks' hustling propensity, and (iii) unbelievably pretty assist-making by Rodrigue Beaubois. I took several more videos than what are shown here, but these shall be enough for one blog post.

I. DERRICK ROSE

Rose has been knocked throughout his first two pro seasons for his lack of long-range shooting ability. Unlike other leading point guards, he rarely attempts 3-pointers. Yet, as this recent ESPN article notes, Rose has recently been ardently practicing his long ball and has tried out his hand at 3s more and more in real games.

In each of the next two videos, Dallas's Jason Kidd clearly fails to respect Rose's shooting ability, apparently having studied Rose's season averages. However, averages can belie recent trends, and Rose's recent trend is Just Swish, Baby:





Here, three Dallas defenders including Barea, Najera, and Nowitzki all elect not to challenge Rose's shot, and he makes them pay:



II. HUSTLING MAVS

Rick Carlisle's teams (the Pistons of 2001-2003 and then the Pacers of 2003-2007) have been known for disciplined play. How did Indiana make the playoffs in 2004-05 after losing hundreds of man-games to injuries and suspensions? Carlisle just knows how to scrap and win. Clearly, he has imparted that knack to his current Mavs team; by contrast, young Bulls coach Vinny Del Negro is still figuring that part out.

Here, Dirk Nowitzki scores, and then Caron Butler and Shawn Marion pick the pocket of Derrick Rose as the latter attempts to bring the ball up the court:



And watch here as Caron Butler sneaks in to steal an offensive rebound and sink an easy layup, robbing the Bulls of what should have been a fast break in the other direction:



III. BEAUBOIS'S DISHING

Rodrigue Beaubois, a slight rookie from Guadeloupe via the French LNB pro league, has impressed a great deal in his limited court time this season. On this night in Chi-town, Roddy B tallied 24 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists, spelling the injured Jason Terry. The Mavs are stuffed with talent and, with J.J. Barea and Terry on the roster, there may not be much room for another 72-inch guard. However, look at this guy's ability to dish the ball.

Here, he makes a Magic-like near-no-look pass to Dirk Nowitzki, who swishes a shot from the top of the key.



Here, he again whips a pass to Dirk, who drives and draws a shooting foul.



Here, Beaubois throws it to Eduardo Najera, who uncharacteristically sinks a 3-ball.



Being so lithe and lean, Beaubois may have some problems defending guards with any heft, however. Here, Derrick Rose (continuing our theme from above) easily outmuscles Beaubois and drains a baseline jumper:



Of course, Beaubois is not the only great passer on Dallas. Here, Jason Kidd threads the figurative needle, delivering an entry pass to Shawn Marion in prime scoring position.



Finally, in this video, two sweet passes by Barea and Najera lead to an easy basket by Caron Butler.

CONCLUSION

Both teams are on the way up, but stand now at different levels. The Mavericks hope they can seriously push Denver or Los Angeles in the playoffs for the Western crown. Chicago is having yet another mediocre season (they've won only one playoff series in the last 11 seasons before this one, as I detailed in this post last month) and they are currently 9th in the Eastern Conference, probably lottery-bound once again. Yet with promising young players Rose, Joakim Noah, Luol Deng, and Taj Gibson, they may have the basis of a good team, especially if they can add a top free agent this summer. The Bulls would do well to learn from the Mavericks' pretty play-making and hustling fire. The Mavs — well, frankly, they don't have much to learn from the young Bulls.

2010 Is Basketball Christmas All The Time

The next six months will be spectacular for any basketball fan.

March brings the NCAA men's and women's tournaments, a dazzling display of communal vice channeled into peace.

April brings the end of the NBA regular season, jockeying for playoff position, and speculation on individual awards.

May brings (after a fairly trivial first round of playoffs to close the prior month) what will be a thrilling "Elite Eight" of playoffs among Boston, Atlanta, Orlando, Cleveland, San Antonio, Dallas, Denver, and Los Angeles.

June heralds an NBA champion, and perhaps the crowning of a new individual King in the sport. Then comes the NBA draft, with its debutants who make you wonder which will be real.

July brings the greatest free-agent season in NBA history. There is a moderately high probability that at least two of the top 10 players in the league will switch teams.

August (stretching into September) brings the FIBA World Championship, the most exalted international contest for folks who care. (Try comparing the Olympic tennis gold medal to Wimbledon.) After three straight failures in international tournaments, the US team won in Beijing in 2008; can they do it again?

Wow wow wow!

Twenty-Four Months Of Perspective On Trades

Back in February 2008, three big trades altered the balance of power in the Western Conference:

(1) The L.A. Lakers traded Kwame Brown, 2007 first-round draft pick Javaris Crittenton, 2007 second-round draft pick Marc Gasol, a 2008 first-round draft pick, and a 2010 first-round pick to Memphis for Pau Gasol and a 2010 second-round pick.

(2) Phoenix traded Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks to Miami for Shaquille O'Neal.

(3) Dallas traded Devin Harris, Desagana Diop, Trenton Hassell, Maurice Ager, a 2008 first-round draft pick, and a 2010 first-round pick to New Jersey for Jason Kidd, Malik Allen, and Antoine Wright.

Each of these transactions was roundly slammed at the time for its one-sidedness: Folks thought that the Lakers, Heat, and Nets fleeced their respective counterparties. However, assets in the NBA (i) are relationship-specific, i.e. their value changes depending which team gets them, and (ii) have dynamic values that can change significantly over time. Ultimately, each of these trades turned out to be far fairer than once thought.

LAKERS-GRIZZLIES (Gasol, Gasol)
We know that Pau Gasol helped propel the Lakers to two NBA finals and one championship (after successive first-round exits in 2006 and 2007), so the trade was a home run for Los Angeles. Yet the deal now looks better for Memphis than once thought. Marc Gasol, hardly mentioned in initial accounts of the trade, now performs rather equinely every night, regularly turning in double-doubles and serving as a scary defensive presence. He was mentioned by several pundits as worthy of a 2010 All-Star spot. Moreover, the 2008 first-round pick in that trade became Darrell Arthur, who is now Memphis's only decent forward off the bench. Memphis, at 30-29 and unexpectedly striving for a playoff spot, is one of the most surprising squads of 2009-10. It is actually hard to imagine now that Memphis could have done significantly better in the trade, given the teams bidding to acquire Pau at the time. Chicago allegedly offered Joakim Noah and Tyrus Thomas, but neither of those guys has Marc Gasol's dominant offensive instincts.

SUNS-HEAT (O'Neal, Marion)
Early in the 2007-08 season, following a first-round sweep by Chicago the previous spring, Heat watchers declared Shaquille O'Neal "done". O'Neal, though, recovered from early-season doldrums following his trade to Phoenix and improved his rebounding from 7.8 per game to 10.6. Phoenix lost in the first round of the playoffs that season to San Antonio, which eventually beat the Hornets in the second round and lost to the Lakers in the conference finals. Whether Phoenix could have surpassed the West's best that season is uncertain. The Suns could not get past San Antonio with a full complement of Nash, Stoudemire, and Marion in the 2007 playoffs, so it is uncertain whether they could have reversed their luck in '08.
In 2008-09, O'Neal was selected to the Western Conference All-Star team and was voted to the All-NBA third team in June. That Phoenix struggled in the 2008-09 season and missed the playoffs was largely the fault of their new coach, Terry Porter, who failed to run a system suited to the run-and-gun, pick-and-roll strengths of the team's biggest stars, Nash and Stoudemire. O'Neal turned in a very good year, featuring his best scoring rate since 2005-06 and his best free throw percentage since 2002-03.
Meanwhile, Marion, once called the most athletic player in the NBA, is no longer thought of as a top 10, top 15, or even top 30 superstar. After the big trade in February 2008 he seemed to sulk, playing under his supposed potential on Miami and later Toronto. Now a starting small forward for Dallas, he is merely a top-notch role player who once was great.

MAVERICKS-NETS (Harris, Kidd)
Is there any controversy here? The Nets are 6-52 and Dallas is 38-21. The 2008 draft pick that the Nets picked up became Ryan Anderson (who was eventually flipped, with Vince Carter, for Courtney Lee), who is a decent ninth man. Save for Hassell, all the other role players in the 2008 draft — Diop, Ager, Allen, Wright — now play elsewhere. Jason Kidd turned in a 19-17-16 game on Friday night at nearly age 37. Following the 2008 trade, he helped the US Olympic team to a gold medal in Beijing, followed by a second-round playoff showing in 2009, knocking off the hated Spurs. This year he averages 10 points, 9 assists, nearly 2 steals, and 42 percent from long range. Looking beyond statistics, he is the unquestioned general of his team and often appears spryer than men nearly half his age. Harris had a nice 2008-09, finishing a very close 2nd in the Most Improved Player voting, but this year he is shooting under 40% from the field -- as a point guard -- while, again, leading his team to a 6-52 record.

Does LeBron Make Teammates Better?

One of my co-bloggers suggested to me yesterday that LeBron James is great at "making his teammates better".

Without denying any of the greatness of #23, I must quibble with this contention. Sure, there is a real basketball sense in which a great player can help his teammates to excel. A point guard can pass the ball to scorers in precisely the right position, at the right moment. A dominant big man can draw double-teams in the paint, leaving 3-point shooters wide open. An agile and intimidating help defender can allow a mediocre defender to survive in a one-on-one defensive scheme, while said mediocre defender thrives on the offensive end of the court. And yes, LeBron James does many of these things.

It is also true that LeBron has done more with less (note: I know that it's not possible to optimize two variables simultaneously) than any other superstar in recent memory. In 2007, LBJ was able to lift his team to the NBA Finals, playing alongside co-starters including Eric Snow, Larry Hughes, and Drew Gooden.

However, players who do best with the ball in their hands a lot may not do so well (or at least, I should say: they may not do better) playing with LeBron James, who often brings the ball from the backcourt, sets up offensive plays, drives, and sometimes rebounds his own side's misses and starts a set anew.

Let us consider two specific teammates of LeBron James whom my co-blogger mentioned as having been "made better" by James: Mo Williams and Zydrunas Ilgauskas.

WILLIAMS
As a second-round draft pick, Williams impressed by claiming Milwaukee's starting PG job in just his second year, 2004-05, and keeping the spot for three more. Williams had a great 2008-09, but his statistics that season were not appreciably better than his 2007-08 statistics in Milwaukee. More likely, the East All-star selection committee felt that Cleveland deserved two players out of 12 due to its great to-date regular season performance, so they chose Williams. This year, Williams has not recovered to his Milwaukee performance levels, turning in only 4.9 assists. Granted, Cleveland's PG may not need to be a "distributor" given LBJ's role in the offense, but Williams is not doing much better than Eric Snow did for Cleveland at age 34 in 2007. Why not just keep Snow around? He's not the most entertaining guy on NBATV anyway.

(The above is a joke, of course, as Williams brings quickness and a jump-shooting ability that Snow could not.)

ILGAUSKAS
First, let us note that Ilgauskas was named to the NBA All-Star team in February 2003, when LeBron James was still competing in the Ohio high school circuit. At this time Ilgauskas's Cavs team was among the worst in the league, so it was really an achievement for Ilgauskas to receive notice. Ilgauskas was named an All-Star again in February 2005, at which time James was still figuring out the pros. Since James became the unquestioned star of his team (and of the league) in 2006, Big Z's hairline has waned, but his game has not. His scoring and rebounding has followed a somewhat desultory path, but (if we take a 3-year moving average) seems to have risen or stayed steady since James came aboard. His field goal percentage has also risen since his early seasons, suggesting that James's presence allows Ilgauskas to shoot 'em from apposite places for his skill set (under the basket or 20 feet away). On this point, I would concede that James's presence has, in fact, made Big Z better, which is impressive as Ilgauskas has aged from 30 to 35.

A Little Butt-Whacking Never Hurt Anyone

Via ESPN's TrueHoop, I read yesterday a New York Times article about a study by UC-Berkeley researchers showing that physical touching between NBA players is positively correlated with good on-court performance.

The article is yet unpublished, so it is difficult to thoroughly understand or critique it. A few points come to mind:

According to the NYT summary, the data consisted of "every bump, hug and high five in a single game played by each team in the National Basketball Association early last season." As I interpret that, they followed one game for each of the 30 NBA teams -- i.e. they followed 15 games total. That's an awfully small sample size, considering that the total number of games in one season is 82 times that number. Possibly, they followed 30 separate games (focusing on just one team in each game), but that's still not much.

According to the NYT write-up, the study uses assist-to-turnover ratio, rather than points scored or plus-minus point differential, as the measure of team and player performance. If they were attempting to measure the effect of positive point performance upon touching, then we could interpret the use of assist-to-turnover ratio as an "instrumental variable" -- i.e. an alternative explanatory variable that is correlated with the real explanator (points) but has no reverse causality from the dependent variable (touching). Does this make sense, though? If touching encourages better point scoring and better defense, then touching could also encourage better ball-sharing and ball-husbanding.

On the other hand, if the researchers' working model is that touching leads causally to better play, then I don't fully understand why they would want to replace the purported dependent variable (point differential) with another, related dependent variable (AST/TO ratio). Surely there is a reverse causality problem here: more assists could mean that players develop a mutual affinity, encouraging touching. Fewer turnovers would reduce enmity and resentment, again encouraging touching. That good play encourages touching seems like a fairly trivial finding, even if some numerical confirmation would be nice.

How, then, to tease out causality? I might recommend something like the "Propensity Score Matching" statistical technique (a brute-force technique in non-experimental settings to group together similar subjects of study, thus controlling for background variables, and then observing what happens when the treatment is applied vs. when it's not applied). But analyzing data this way is definitely not my day job.

Most Rings Won By NBA Players

Just for fun, here is our compilation of the NBA players with the most championships over the period from 1980-2009. If there are any errors or omissions, please leave a note in the comments.

SEVEN
Robert Horry (Houston 1994, 1995; Los Angeles 2000, 2001, 2002; San Antonio 2005, 2007)

SIX
Scottie Pippen (Chicago 1991, 1992, 1993, 1996, 1997, 1998)
Michael Jordan (Chicago 1991, 1992, 1993, 1996, 1997, 1998)

FIVE
Magic Johnson (Los Angeles 1980, 1982, 1985, 1987, 1988)
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (Los Angeles 1980, 1982, 1985, 1987, 1988)
Note: KAJ also has a sixth championship from the 1971 Bucks.
Michael Cooper (Los Angeles 1980, 1982, 1985, 1987, 1988)
Ron Harper (Chicago 1996, 1997, 1998; Los Angeles 2000, 2001)
Steve Kerr (Chicago 1996, 1997, 1998; San Antonio 1999, 2003)
Dennis Rodman (Detroit 1989, 1990; Chicago 1996, 1997, 1998)

FOUR
Kobe Bryant (Los Angeles 2000, 2001, 2002, 2009)
Derek Fisher (Los Angeles 2000, 2001, 2002, 2009)
Shaquille O'Neal (Los Angeles 2000, 2001, 2002; Miami 2006)
Tim Duncan (San Antonio 1999, 2003, 2005, 2007)
John Salley (Detroit 1989, 1990; Chicago 1996; Los Angeles 2000)
Horace Grant (Chicago 1991, 1992, 1993; Los Angeles 2001)
Robert Parish (Boston 1981, 1984, 1986; Chicago 1997)
Kurt Rambis (Los Angeles 1982, 1985, 1987, 1988)
Will Perdue (Chicago 1991, 1992, 1993; San Antonio 1999)

THREE
Toni Kukoc (Chicago 1996, 1997, 1998)
Luc Longley (Chicago 1996, 1997, 1998)
Jud Buechler (Chicago 1996, 1997, 1998)
Bill Wennington (Chicago 1996, 1997, 1998)
Bill Cartwright (Chicago 1991, 1992, 1993)
Stacey King (Chicago 1991, 1992, 1993)
John Paxson (Chicago 1991, 1992, 1993)
Scott Williams (Chicago 1991, 1992, 1993)
Craig Hodges (Chicago 1991, 1992, 1993)
B.J. Armstrong (Chicago 1991, 1992, 1993)
A.C. Green (Los Angeles 1987, 1988, 2000)
Kevin McHale (Boston 1981, 1984, 1986)
Larry Bird (Boston 1981, 1984, 1986)
Byron Scott (Los Angeles 1985, 1987, 1988)
James Worthy (Los Angeles 1985, 1987, 1988)
Jamaal Wilkes (Los Angeles 1980, 1982, 1985)
Note: If we count Wilkes's stint on the 1975 Golden State Warriors, he has four rings.
Rick Fox (Los Angeles 2000, 2001, 2002)
Devean George (Los Angeles 2000, 2001, 2002)
Tony Parker (San Antonio 2003, 2005, 2007)
Manu Ginobili (San Antonio 2003, 2005, 2007)
Bruce Bowen (San Antonio 2003, 2005, 2007)
......................................
UPDATE: I could've just checked this link, which already compiled the same info. Oops.

On CBA Negotiations

NBA "superagent" David Falk made two useful observations in this recent New York Times article.

First, he stated that NBA owners have a "much more reduced financial ability to withstand" a work stoppage than NBA players do. At first glance, this makes sense: NBA owners own other highly profitable businesses and have other sources of cash-flow, plus plenty of wealth in the bank. Most NBA players are not gainfully employed outside of their NBA commitments. Sure, the top stars endorse commercial products such as insurance, shoes, and fast food, but most players don't have such opportunities. If they are prudent, they have invested their wealth in a mix of liquid and illiquid investments that produce a regular dividend stream, but sadly, not all players are so responsible with their money.

I suppose the surprising part of Falk's comment is the modifying word "much" in front of "more". If I earned 1 million after-tax dollars in just one year of my life, I would find a way to put that money to work so I could, for the most part, retire from the rat race forever. And the average NBA player salary is $5 million!

Second, Falk suggests that in the next Collective Bargaining Agreement, owners' revenue, for purposes of calculating a player salary cap, should include "China, franchise appreciation, broadcast rights, luxury seating".

Let us take a look at the current definition of Basketball-Related Income ("BRI") from Article VII, Section 1 of the Collective Bargaining Agreement:

Gate receipts [Sections 1(a)(1)(i), (iii), and (iv)]

Broadcast rights fees [Section 1(a)(1)(ii)]

In-arena novelty and concession receipts [Section 1(a)(1)(v)]

Parking fees [Section 1(a)(v)]

Team sponsorships and promotions [Section 1(a)(v)]

40% of luxury suite receipts [Section 1(a)(1)(vii)]

50% of arena naming rights fees [Section 1(a)(1)(viii)]

Licensing fees received by NBA properties [Section 1(a)(1)(ix)]

Receipts from premium seat licenses [Section 1(a)(1)(x)]

However, the following is excluded from the definition of BRI, among other things:

Expansion fees from new owners[Section 1(a)(2)(iii)]

Government subsidies for a new arena [Section 1(a)(2)(xi), (xii)]

Revenues from leasing team assets such as a plane [Section 1(a)(2)(xix)]

Falk has a point. It may be that owners are collectively losing money under the current regime, and the players' share of "Basketball-Related Income", as embodied in each team's salary cap, needs to be reduced. However, why are certain revenue streams, such as government subsidies, excluded from BRI? And why is only 50% of arena naming rights fees, rather than the whole hog, included in the BRI calculation? The more players have a stake in revenue streams, the more they (or their union, acting collectively as their agent) will have an incentive to take actions that grow the pie, such as charitable appearances, government lobbying, corporate motivational talks, and so forth. To the extent that Falk correctly identified revenue streams that are not currently completely included in the BRI definition (for example, he mentioned "luxury seating", but luxury suite fees are already 100% included in BRI), I agree completely with Falk.
....................
UPDATE February 26th: As for Falk's suggestion that players should share in franchise appreciation, the first paragraph from reader "Dan Palmer" in this SI.com article quite captures my view.

More generally, franchise appreciation in sports is an odd duck. For most businesses, the enterprise value is based on some capitalized sum of future profit streams. Yet sports owners may want the asset for personal or emotional reasons. Who wouldn't want to own the Chicago Cubs? This non-"rational" demand, resulting in each potential bidder having his own idiosyncratic valuation for the business, makes a sports team far more like a house than a commercial office building.

Chicago Bulls' Ever-Changing Rebuilding Strategy

Since Michael Jordan retired from the Bulls after his last championship in 1998, the Bulls have made three distinct attempts at re-building.

The first iteration involved Ron Mercer (drafted in 1997), Brad Miller (undrafted in 1998), Elton Brand (drafted in '99) and Ron Artest (drafted in '99). All these men had outperformed in at least two years of college play. Miller, in particular, led the US team at the 1998 World Championships, when NBA stars refused to go due to labor negotiations. Toni Kukoc, who had contributed to three championship teams at West Madison, remained on the roster after Jordan and Pippen departed. This roster could have been quite promising if left to stew in its juices.

But Bulls management, impatient, then decided to re-stock the roster with young phenoms. On draft day in June 2001, Chicago traded Brand to the Los Angeles Clippers for the second pick in that draft. Chicago selected Compton CA prep standout Tyson Chandler, a Jurassic-sized creature who looked ready to man the post for a while. Oddly, Chicago selected another high school center, Eddy Curry of suburban Chicago, with its own pick at #4 in that draft. Meanwhile, Chicago began building around Jamal Crawford, a kid with one year of post-high school experience whom they had selected at #8 in the 2000 draft. Meanwhile, Miller, Artest, and Mercer, then barely men, were traded to Indiana in 2002 for Jalen Rose and Travis Best. Miller and Artest eventually became the building blocks, with Jermaine O'Neal, of the Pacers Resurrected, who shockingly returned to the Eastern Conference's elite just a couple years after Dale Davis, Antonio Davis, Mark Jackson, and Rik Smits flew south for the winter.

When this strategy failed -- the Bulls having endured three miserable seasons of 21, 30, and 23 wins immediately following the Brand trade -- General Manager John Paxson, who took control of the team in April 2003, began pursuing a patient strategy of building through the draft, choosing college players who had thrived in the NCAA tournament. Thus he selected Jay Williams in 2002 (a Duke alum, who had led the team to the 2001 NCAA title), Kirk Hinrich in 2003 (a Kansas Jayhawk who took his team to the Final Four in 2002 and the title game in 2003), Ben Gordon in 2004 (a U. Connecticut player who won the 2004 championship), Luol Deng in 2004 (the top freshman on a Final Four Duke team, which missed playing in the final by just one point, losing to Gordon's Huskies), Chris Duhon in 2004 (Deng's Duke teammate, and a freshman during the 2001 championship run, though he played not a minute that season), Tyrus Thomas in 2006 (a freakish freshman who led his LSU team to the Final Four, turning in 21-13-3 in the regional final), Joakim Noah in 2007 (the captain of a Gators squad that won the championship in 2006, then did it again), Derrick Rose in 2008 (he who almost willed his Memphis Tigers to the NCAA title), and Taj Gibson in 2009 (who, in some contradistinction to the others, lost in the second round of the tournament with his Trojans).

Meanwhile, the avatars of Chicago's previous youth movement were quickly disposed of. Chicago traded Jamal Crawford to New York in 2004 for a bunch of old or weak players, then traded Curry to the same Knicks in 2005, and Tyson Chandler to New Orleans in 2006. (I would be remiss to not mention Chicago's huge Ben Wallace signing in July 2006, which apparently would disturb my thesis of slow growth through baccalaureates. I must admit, the perceived need to add a veteran was quizzical then, and still is. The team was not yet ready to rise, featuring a core of Deng/Gordon/Hinrich, average age 23. In the event, Wallace did not play to his prior peak while with the Bulls, and Chicago was able to trade him away in February 2008 for Larry Hughes and Drew Gooden.)


It should be noted that high school players were ineligible for the NBA draft after 2005, and that foreign players were discredited following the failure of Darko Milicic, the #2 pick in 2003. Thus, selecting successful college players, once a quotidian and humdrum strategy, may now be once again banal, more than I would like to imagine for purposes of this blog post.

Of course, one cannot accumulate assets forever without some adverse risk events materializing. Williams sadly wrecked his knee in a motorcycle crash in 2003 and never returned to NBA action. The Bulls let Duhon walk away to New York in summer 2008, and let the shot-happy Gordon become a new Piston as a free agent in July '09. They traded Thomas to Charlotte in February of 2010, after he uttered a hot tirade against his coach. (With that trade the Bulls acquired Acie Law, who had reached the NCAA Sweet 16 in 2008, and with another trade on the same day Chicago acquired Hakim Warrick, who won the NCAA championship with Syracuse in 2003.)

In any case, the Bulls' current core of Deng, Noah, Gibson, Hinrich, and Noah is good, but not great. Greatness may require the complementary services of Dwyane Wade (Final Four alum of 2003) or Carlos Boozer (Jay Williams's former teammate from that glorious 2001 Duke squad). In an era dominated recently by Bryant, James, Howard, and Garnett, it would be meet if a collection of Dick Vitale's favorites could win the NBA title.

More On McGrady Trade

Well, the deal I wrote about yesterday came to fruition, with the added wrinkle of Sacramento's involvement. Sacramento sends Sergio Rodriguez to New York and Kevin Martin to Houston. Sacramento receives Carl Landry and Joey Dorsey from Houston, along with Larry Hughes from New York. Otherwise, the basic outlines of yesterday's trade still hold: New York receives McGrady, while Houston receives Jared Jeffries, Jordan Hill, New York's 2012 first-round draft pick, and the right to swap first-round picks with New York in 2011.

This is a win-win-win. New York clears 2010-11 salary and is able to audition McGrady for two months. Houston gets Martin, potentially a star shooting guard in the mold of Reggie Miller and Richard Hamilton, plus a strong defender in Jeffries and a lottery prospect in Hill. Sacramento receives the very solid Landry and also cuts salary; their payroll for 2010-11 is now low enough that they also could potentially sign a "max" free agent this July. Who wouldn't want to play with Tyreke Evans?

The Knicks also come away from today with an influx of young talent. Though they gave away 2009 lottery pick Jordan Hill, they received Sergio Rodriguez, plus J.R. Giddens and Bill Walker from their Nate Robinson trade. To date, Donnie Walsh has done a very good job of shepherding the team into the new decade. If he can sign top stars this summer, we will be obliged to give him an A+.

Assessing Potential Knicks-Rockets Trade

Today's reports indicate that the Knicks want to trade Jared Jeffries, Jordan Hill, and Larry Hughes, plus a couple draft picks, to Houston for Tracy McGrady.

If completed, this would be an excellent deal for New York. Hill has not shown much promise in his first 50 pro games. Jeffries is a versatile defender, but probably replicable, and at a cheaper salary. Shedding the $6.88 MM contract of Jeffries and the $2.67 MM contract of HIll would shave $9.55 MM off the Knicks' salary roll for 2010-11, leaving them with just $17.78 MM in committed player pay for next season. Looking at a salary cap of approximately $53 MM, the Knicks would have approximately $35 MM of uncommitted cap space to sign free agents in July. With a maximum allowed salary of approximately $16 MM annually, the Knicks could bring in two top-level players from the pool of James/Wade/Bosh/Johnson/Stoudemire, and possibly sign a third top performer to boot. Perhaps McGrady would re-sign with New York at a low rate. Let us not forget that T-Mac has earned All-NBA honors six times, including two seasons on the First Team. And he is only 30 years old. If he can perform at 50% of his peak, that's still better than anyone else presently on the Knicks.

Under this scenario, the Knicks would have only four signed players for 2010-11: Chandler, Gallinari, Curry, and Douglas. Only the first two guys of that list are good, and they both play small forward. Thus, signing LeBron James seems unlikely. A likelier combination would be plucking (i) one top guard: Johnson or Wade, and (ii) one top big: Stoudemire or Bosh.

Of course, Miami, Chicago, New Jersey, Oklahoma City, and the L.A. Clippers will compete to sign these same free agents. Also, the Knicks would have a troublesome time filling in the rest of the 15-man roster after signing two studs. (They have no first-round draft pick in 2010, having traded it away in 2004.) It would help if Eddy Curry could get in shape and return to his form of 2006-07, when he averaged 19.5 points and 7 rebounds on 58% field-goal percentage. This seems unlikely, though.

UPDATE: Somewhat relatedly, I just became aware of this New York Times article, an interesting analysis of the financial fortunes of Madison Square Garden Inc., parent company of the New York Knicks. On February 9th, Madison Square Garden Inc. became a separate business entity from its parent, Cablevision.

Steada Treated

In our last installment, we looked at the 2010 cohort of role players who have remained on one team for six solid years. Here are a few more whom we omitted in that post:

TONY ALLEN (Boston 2004-present)
SASHA VUJACIC (L.A. Lakers 2004-present)
Each of these guys has been lucky to follow the journey of joining a team at the lowest point of its sinusoid curve, and then watching as the team climbs toward a championship, all while remaining a non-core role player. Sasha "The Machine" was drafted in 2004, immediately prior to the trades of Shaquille O'Neal and Gary Payton. My, but that Lakers team was bad (34-48) in Vujacic's first year, driving coach Rudy Tomjanovich into a second retirement. He hit a couple big shots for Los Angeles when it hit a scurvy fate in the 2006 and 2007 first rounds against Phoenix, but now that the Lakers are title contenders again, he averages 7.6 minutes and 2.5 points, having been supplanted in the rotation by Shannon Brown. He is lucky enough to consort with beautiful tennis star Maria Sharapova, though.
As for Allen, he plays decent defense and the Celtics sometimes view him as their "Kobe stopper". It's surprising that he's hung around for six years, though, as he is probably not the caliber of player that an elite team would like to have as their best backup wing.

DORELL WRIGHT (Miami 2004-present)
Wright has experienced the opposite trajectory to Vujacic and Allen: He was inducted into the Miami side in 2004 at their very peak, just after they acquired Shaquille O'Neal for the trio of Odom, Butler, and Grant. Miami won six playoff series and a championship in Wright's first two years, although he did not receive much serious run. Wright's best season was 2007-08, in which he averaged 25 minutes, 8 points, and 5 rebounds. That was also Miami's worst: Dwyane Wade had several injuries, Shaquille O'Neal was tired then traded, and the team blatantly "tanked" in hopes of a high draft pick. As Wade and Miami have haltingly returned to form in the last couple years, Wright's utilization has sunk. He is still on the team, though his contract is set to expire in June and some analysts think Miami will soon trade him for luxury-tax relief.

Prior to this week, I was planning to include all the guys below on my list of long-tenured role players. However, recent developments have moved me to see them as distinct creatures. I now feel inclined to create a new category: "Guys Who Did Not Ascend to All-Star Status Until Their Sixth or Seventh Season With The Same Team". This list would include Gerald Wallace (a 2010 All-Star in his sixth year with Charlotte, and his ninth overall), Chris Kaman (a 2010 All-Star in his seventh Clippy year) and Josh Smith (the most popularly mentioned 2010 All-Star snub, in his sixth campaign with Atlanta).

And here is another category: "Guys Who Seemingly Have All-Star Talent At Times But Have Never Put It Together For A Sustained Period, Yet Remain On One Team For Six Years": Luol Deng, Andris Biedrins, Andre Iguodala, Tayshaun Prince, and Kevin Martin are the charter members of this club. Richard Jefferson, who played for New Jersey from 2001-2008, also qualifies. Other than the big Latvian, these guys are all lanky wing players. Does this mean that good-but-not-great wing players are scarce and teams are afraid to lose them? Or that analysts have a tendency to overestimate the potential of slashers who really aren't all that?

We All Did What We Could Do

Last year, we identified several role players (by which I mean, roughly, players who have less than a 10% chance of ever making an All-Star team) who have stayed with one team for six seasons or more.

Surprisingly, not much has changed since then: while a handful of teams parted ways with their yeomen (Etan Thomas, now of the Twin Cities), several other mainstays made it to one additional season (Sam Dalembert, Brendan Haywood, Erick Dampier, Dan Gadzuric, Nick Collison, Jeff Foster, Luke Walton). Notably, the above list includes almost entirely big men. Clearly, we should infer that skilled, coachable tall guys are difficult to find. (For purposes of this post, I am counting the current season as already complete, so a guy drafted in 2004 has already completed six seasons with his team, and thus could make it aboard this list.) Let us examine the latest cohort of Hard-Workin' Studs, who have now stayed with a single squad for six. Some of these guys belonged on my 2009 list, as they've been on their team since fall 2003, but I neglected to extol them then.

ANDERSON VAREJAO (Cleveland 2004-present) Derided for his floppy hair and floppy defense, Varejao actually has become the second most-valuable player on the Cavaliers, the Scottie to LBJ's Jordan. He plays energetic defense and always knows how to help a teammate when needed. On offense, he sets very sturdy screens and scraps well for rebounds. He is not yet much of a shooter, but most of his teammates take care of that burden.

NENE HILARIO (Denver 2002-present)
Nene's first few seasons in the league were beset by calamities: a torn ACL on the first day of the 2005-06 season, and later, a thumb injury and a cancer diagnosis in 2007-08. Lately, though, he has been playing quite robustly, earning some informal All-Star nominations. He helped to lead his team to the Western Conference Finals last May and might do it again this year. I still maintain that he belongs on this list, as his chances of ever making the Western conference All-Star team are low in a competition against Andrew Bynum, Greg Oden, Amare Stoudemire, Chris Kaman and both Gasol brothers. It is likely that we have seen the best Nene can offer.

KIRK HINRICH (Chicago 2003-present)
Hinrich was a serviceable point guard until the Bulls fortuitously received the top pick of the 2008 draft, wherein Derrick Rose presented himself for plucking. Hinrich plays good defense for a 6'3" guard and is often called "tough", which I think is code for "dirty". He is not a great NBA point guard, though, as his passing, shooting, and handling skills are not at the level of the PG greats. His shooting percentage this season has fallen to a horrible 38%. Recently, rumors have surfaced that Hinrich could be traded to the Lakers or Celtics; he would certainly be a wonderful addition as a sixth man on those two contenders, while the Bulls might be happy to be freed of his $9 MM salary obligation in 2010-11.

TRAVIS OUTLAW (Portland 2003-present)
Outlaw never has fulfilled the promise suggested by his auspicious membership in the '03 draft class, which has heretofore produced eight All-Stars. The guy can run the floor like a U. Bolt and energize the Rose Garden crowd, but unfortunately Portland coach Nate Macmillan believes in a slow game. Sadly, just as soon as fast-breaking PG Andre Miller joined the team this past fall, Outlaw's dream of ooping till Tuesday was slain. In this, his seventh season, he has spent the majority of the stretch healing a broken foot (the same injury that felled his fellow 3, Martell Webster, last season). Talk is that Portland may want to trade him in the next few days, as his contract expires in June and he would likely not be re-signed.

LEANDRO BARBOSA (Phoenix 2003-present)
Barbosa and Amare Stoudemire are the longest-tenured Phoenix players, the latter now in his eighth Sunny year and the former in his seventh. During the Suns' days atop the Western conference from 2004 to 2007, Barbosa won a Sixth Man of the Year award and looked like a future star. Of late his performance has regressed, though; his 2009-10 stats are depressed in nearly every category. On the court, his famed speed no longer looks lapine. Barbosa has figured in many recent trade rumors involving Phoenix, as it would be impossible to posit him as a core member of the team going forward.

WILLIE GREEN (Philly 2003-present)
Green is now in his seventh season with the Sixers. He seemingly peaked in 2007-08, averaging approximately 12, 2, and 2. This season he averages 9, 2, and 2 in five fewer minutes, suggesting that perhaps there is a ceiling to his willingness to exert non-shooting effort. Many players would be giddy to turn in a 12-point best, but that seems paltry for a $4 million man. Philadelphia has not had a proper shooting guard since Aaron McKie in 2001, and it has been surprising that Green could not make it as their new 2. It's been even more surprising that the Sixers have kept the man so long.

JASON TERRY (Dallas 2004-present)
Terry won Sixth Man of the Year in 2009, a nearly impossible feat as a third point guard (or, perhaps, a 6'2" shooting guard). Clearly, Dirk Nowitzki likes playing with Terry, who previously logged five seasons with the Hawks — a tenure that saw them miss the playoffs every season. Terry is a likeable player and a prolific scorer: perhaps the best man on this list. Like current Hawk Jamal Crawford, Terry has successfully escaped the fate of a Marbury, Francis, or Iverson, all tagged as short guards with little discipline.

Sweater Already, Mom's Spaghetti (3 of 3)

In December we discussed the deep and long-standing ties between pro ballers and professional wrestlers. I promised to, but have not yet, explain what draws these two troupes of athletes together. Here are some thoughts, although I withhold any representation of analytical seriousness.

To be sure, wrestling is at best only a niche interest for NBAers. I could write an equally footnoted post about NBA players who produce jazz music or players who own a controlling interest in a fashion design LLC. Still, there must be something about the feverish combustibility of staged combat that lures these greats of the court into the wooly cinema of clotheslines, moonsaults, and powerbombs.

As I detailed in a series of posts last season about second-generation basketball players, many wrestlers are scions of long wrestling lineages. Hennig, Johnson, Cena, and other top guys like multi-time WWE champion Randy Orton are all sons of wrestling personalities from an older era. Jericho’s father played in the NHL for the New York Rangers. Like a Stephen Curry or a Kobe Bryant, many ballers grew up in the game and can relate to athletes who know their craft as a whole way of life.

During the Tim Donaghy scandal three summers ago, cynical NBA fans joked that the league had become a lawless Wild West, or perhaps a “fixed” World Wrestling Federation, with David Stern playing the role of Vince K. McMahon. As Stern wisely noted, if he wanted to create new stars and fix particular contests, he would have favored the Suns over the Spurs in 2005 and 2007. Still, this did not explain questionable refereeing accompanying L.A. over Sacramento in 2002, Miami over Dallas in 2006, or Cleveland over Detroit in 2007. Why did Kobe, Dwyane, and LeBron receive so many foul calls in pivotal games? Perhaps NBAers feel at home in a setting where competitive outcomes are pre-determined.


Perhaps the greatest reason why basketball players relate to grapplers is that both are, as one essential characteristic, larger-than-life freaks of nature who put their bodies on public display for paying customers. Unlike players in MLB, NFL, and NHL, pro hoopers expose much of their body and all their face, allowing paying fans to see their joy, their pain, and all their tattoos. There must be some collegiality among carnivalesque performers who discard their modesty, or else feel a grudging pressure to ignore it, as part of the trade they love.

Like basketball, wrestling is full of an preening, often-homophobic, and misogynistic ethos. (I will not touch upon the dozens of wrestlers who have died before age 50 from long-term drug abuse, as I think that issue is sui generis.) Men who revel in an analgesic, martial culture surely feel at ease together. (This argument would suggest that wrestlers might also enjoy hanging out with pro football players. ... And they do! All-Pro NFL defensive players such as Kevin Greene, Reggie White, Lawrence Taylor, William Perry, and Steve McMichael have all signed up to wrestle for WWF/E or WCW.)

Back to the LeBron James — DeShawn Stevenson dispute, I would not be surprised if the whole thing were a pre-arranged gimmick meant to drum up interest. It bears all the hallmarks of a typical pro wrestling feud: two guys take issue over some trivial perceived slight, they entourage it up by bringing in more powerful allies, and then they escalate for no good reason.

Declare the Pennies

A lot of pundits apparently believe that Chris Bosh is the likeliest of the top free agents to switch teams this coming July. One under-commented issue is the discrepancy in personal income tax rates between the several jurisdictions where he might end up. We know from Article IX, Section I of the Collective Bargaining Agreement that a free agent can sign up to a six-year contract with his current team, but only five with a new team. We also know that the maximum annual salary, per Article II, Section 7 of the CBA, is 30% of the salary cap, which will probably be about $53 MM, so the maximum annual salary is about $16 MM. Bosh can earn $16 MM more in guaranteed money (if he wishes to tie himself down for six years) by staying with Toronto.

However, how would tax rates alter this calculation? Let us imagine that Bosh scores a contract worth $16 MM per season. Let us consider three jurisdictions given Bosh's top three likely free-agency destinations: Ontario, New York State, and Florida.

The top marginal tax rate in Ontario, considering both federal and provincial taxes, is 43%.

Meanwhile, the top federal marginal tax rate in the United States is 35%.

Florida has ZERO personal income tax.

In New York State, the top state marginal tax rate is 8.97% and the New York City marginal tax rate is 3.648%.

Of course, the top marginal tax rate is a smidge less than the average tax rate over all Bosh's income, so we need to calibrate our calculations carefully.

I will omit much detail of my calculations (I was considering making a Google Docs spreadsheet showing my calculations, but really, life is too short), but here is my estimate of Bosh's total annual tax liability (including federal taxation) in each of the three jurisdictions:

Ontario: $7.388 MM

New York: $7.594 MM

Florida: $5.575 MM

Note that all figures here are U.S. dollars. Presumably Bosh is paid in the Canadian equivalent of USD 16 MM, or perhaps directly in USD. U.S.-Canada exchange rates are presently near parity, but to be thorough, I converted USD 16 MM to Canadian dollars, calculated his Canadian tax liability, and converted that to USD. We cannot simply apply Canadian tax rates to his nominal USD 16 MM, because due to the progressive structure of marginal tax rates, the amount of dollars in the top bracket would be incorrect.

Other than standard deductions and 1 personal exemption, I am ignoring all special adjustments, credits, exemptions, and deductions (though if Bosh buys an expensive house in his imaginary new home, the comparative tax benefits from federal interest-and-property-tax deductions would be rather large in Florida or New York, versus nothing at all in Ontario).

So New York has the highest tax burden, with Ontario a close second. The Florida tax liability (entirely owed to the U.S. government) is significantly cheaper. Again, if Bosh wants to buy a home (although presumably he already has purchased a Toronto home; he would probably sell that upon moving back to the States), Ontario's tax burden would definitely become the dearest. I will refrain from attempting to estimate the magnitude of Bosh's tax deduction from mortgage payments and property tax paid in the U.S. — I will leave that an exercise for you, our dear readers.