The 2011-12 All-NBA Teams

The All-NBA Teams were announced yesterday.  Below is a review of the results and my commentary.

Guards
First Team: Kobe Bryant, Chris Paul
Second Team: Russell Westbrook, Tony Parker
Third Team: Rajon Rondo, Dwyane Wade

Comment: Paul played excellently in lifting the Clippers -- a motley bunch of very young players and old hangers-on -- to the status of a fringe contender.  Bryant played well, but took too many shots and made too few of them, averaging 10 of 23 from the field and posting the second-highest usage rate of his career (behind only his 2005-06 campaign, the season of Smush Parker and Kwame Brown).  Parker, who led San Antonio to the best record in the West, probably deserved a spot on the First Team.  Otherwise, the list is unimpeachable: Steve Nash and James Harden could have made a case for inclusion, but it is difficult to remove any of the six honorees from their spots.  Westbrook was a freak, Wade was great, and Rondo brought the Celtics back from despair after they entered the All-Star break with more losses than wins.  Rondo actually ended up leading the league in assists per game.  Several former mainstays of this accolade -- Joe Johnson, Derrick Rose, Manu Ginobili, and Deron Williams -- were either injured or lethargic or both this season and did not distinguish themselves.


Centers
First Team: Dwight Howard
Second Team: Andrew Bynum
Third Team: Tyson Chandler

Comment: Who can argue with this list?
Roy Hibbert, Greg Monroe, Joakim Noah, Marc Gasol, Marcin Gortat, Al Jefferson, and Kevin Garnett also deserve mention.  Hibbert, alone among these gentlemen, has the towering stature that David Robinson and Patrick Ewing carried throughout the '90s.  If he can harness his build with the jump-shooting and intimidation skills of the former Spur and former Knick, his place on the All-NBA team will eventually be sealed.  Garnett nominally played center after Jermaine O'Neal left the team; the fairly wiry Bass-Garnett frontcourt was their most common and also most effective.  Sacramento's DeMarcus Cousins showed tons of promise on offense, but a 45% field-goal percentage mark is not enough to invite double-teams and properly power an offense.

Tim Duncan played like an All-Star in his 28 minutes per game this season; his per-game statistics (18 points, 9 boards, 2 blocks, and nearly 80% from the free-throw line) would have been transcendent if he played, say, 36 minutes per game like a star center in his prime.  However, I cannot choose a half-time contributor for the All-NBA list.


Forwards
First Team: LeBron James, Kevin Durant
Second Team: Kevin Love, Blake Griffin
Third Team: Carmelo Anthony, Dirk Nowitzki

Comment: JPO would probably put Andre Iguodala and LaMarcus Aldridge on the Third Team ahead of Anthony and Nowitzki.  Anthony shot a low percentage all season and missed several games in February during Jeremy Lin's rise to fame.  Nowitzki played poorly in January (15 points, 6 rebounds) and averaged only 21.6 points for the whole season, hardly matching his usual standards.  This was also the seventh consecutive season in which his per-game board numbers dipped from the previous season.  Love was a monster producer on the offensive end, and he ranked twelfth in the league in Adjusted Plus-Minus, showing that his defensive efforts are not as lackluster as commonly advertised.  Griffin was very good offensively, though his defense needs work: witness how Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter ate him for breakfast in the just-completed Spurs-Clippers series.  

Paul Pierce, Luol Deng, Rudy Gay, Josh Smith, Chris Bosh, and Paul Millsap also deserve mention.  Ultimately, the two-way ability of Iguodala and Aldridge puts them in my top six in this category; Deng and Smith also balled hard on defense, but the Sixer and the Blazer balled a bit harder.

Other than all the players I mentioned above, other players receiving votes from the official panel include Monta Ellis, Luis Scola, David Lee, Danny Granger, and Serge Ibaka.  Sorry, but these votes must be a joke.

Choosing the 2012 All-Star Rosters

With just three days to go until the big event, here are my picks for the 2012 NBA All-Star Game:

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Starters
Derrick Rose
Dwyane Wade
Dwight Howard
LeBron James
Chris Bosh

Reserves
Tyson Chandler
Andre Iguodala
Luol Deng
Paul Pierce
Deron Williams
Greg Monroe
Josh Smith

Comments: The worth of the starters should be apparent. Wade is by far the best shooting guard in the East, even after missing several games. The same goes for Rose at his position. Howard, distracted a bit by his eventual disposition via trade, is still leaps better than other centers. James is the league's best player, and this season he plays with his back to the basket. Bosh is not the dominant force he was in Toronto, but his versatile face-up game leads the East among power forwards, and he always finds a way to stick his long neck into the right spot on defense.

Chandler has continued his awesome defensive play from Dallas, and also leads the league in field-goal percentage. He edges Roy Hibbert as a backup center, though this means Indiana will not have an All-Star representative (Danny Granger, putatively the Pacers' star, averages under 40% from the field [although curiously, he ranks near the top of the league in adjusted +/- ]). Rajon Rondo has played well, but missed too many games (including two games recently lost to suspension after a silly outburst against a referee); the same goes for Andrea Bargnani. Pierce has been the Celtics' best player; witness how they rose after Pierce recovered from an early-season heel injury. Carmelo Anthony, chosen as a starter in fan voting, has played poorly (the Knicks lost two-thirds of their games with him, before he ducked out due to injury and Jeremy Lin took over as starting point guard) and does not deserve to be near this list. Iguodala has led his team to the upper echelon of the Eastern Conference with excellent two-way play, while Deng has played similarly and gutted through a damaging wrist injury. Deron Williams is still the East's second-best point guard, though he has looked languorous at times in New Jersey. Monroe has dazzled for a poor Detroit team, though one wishes he could throw his body around more viciously in the paint (he averages only 0.6 blocks and his adjusted +/- is negative 11). Smith has played too many seasons without an All-Star berth, and is delivering terrifying numbers at both ends of the court this year. If only he could fix his free-throw form!

Key "snubs" from my East team include Rondo, Hibbert, Kyrie Irving, Milwaukee guard Brandon Jennings, and Atlanta's Joe Johnson. But Johnson's stats are sorry, and Jennings has not exceeded Williams.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Starters
Chris Paul
Kobe Bryant
Andrew Bynum
Kevin Love
Kevin Durant

Reserves
Blake Griffin
Russell Westbrook
Steve Nash
Marc Gasol
Paul Millsap
LaMarcus Aldridge
Tony Parker

Comments: The starters are, again, hard to quarrel with, I think. Bryant shoots too much, but his production through a wrist injury has stretched the Lakers to wins that they (featuring World Peace, Ebanks, Fisher, and Blake as four of their top ten players) didn't deserve. Paul has transformed the Clippers into a serious team, and Bynum is the meanest center west of Florida; he ranks 19th in the league in adjusted +/- among players who have clocked at least 800 minutes. Blake Griffin dunks and moves like a tiger, but he hardly tries on defense; Kevin Love's all-around offensive game deserves a starting spot. And what else can one say about Durant? This sequence from the end of the Lakers-Thunder first half tonight is telling:

Three point guards off the bench may be a lot (and I had a hard time excluding a fourth backup point, Kyle Lowry), but Westbrook is a terror on both ends for the league's co-title favorite, Nash is in SSOL form, and Parker has maintained the Spurs' perennial excellence while Manu Ginobili has missed 25 of 34 games due to injury, leading a team of nobodies (well, and Tim Duncan) to the West's second-best record. LaMarcus Aldridge's excellence is undeniable this season, and Marc Gasol narrowly edges Marcin Gortat as the backup center. (Should Phoenix really get two players on the team?)

James Harden, Kevin Martin, Lowry, Rudy Gay, Pau Gasol, and Gortat were worthy of consideration, but in the end I take Millsap for the final spot, after he has led Utah to respectability in a putative rebuilding year. And his stats are boss. This leaves the Western team with only one small forward, but Durant can go all day, and Kobe Bryant could try to defend LeBron James in a pinch with Westbrook at the shooting guard position.

The Dunk Contest

We have long been irked by unequal application of discretionary rules for stars who can potentially sell jerseys and drive TV ratings. After seeing last night's All-Star slam dunk contest, there should be little question that from the outset, the league planned to vault Griffin into the final round. It certainly was handy that Griffin had a gospel choir and the corporate sponsor's car ready to deploy for his final-round dunk, eh?

Clearly, the judging, at least the first-round scoring, was not quite objective. Here is how I would have judged the first round of the contest (assume I am judging each dunk on a 50-point scale; a 50 should represent an all-time iconic dunk):

Derozan: 40 for his first between-the-legs, off-the-backboard-side dunk (the "East Bay Rim Shaker"), which failed to innovate on dunks from previous years. 45 for his "Show Stopper", a consciously spare performance that entailed a one-handed catch, scoop, and jam. [Actual grades: 44, 50]

Ibaka: 46 for his initial free-throw-line dunk, requiring but one attempt. 42 for his teddy-bear dunk involving the mohawked thespianito. Biting the bear off the hoop was in fact a feat. [Actual grades: 45, 45]

McGee: 46 for his double-rim, double-armed dunk (a couple points deducted for his multiple attempts and his relative lack of power on the dunks). 46 for his three-ball dunk (same reasoning). [Actual grades: 50, 49]

Griffin: 46 for his 360 dunk. 38 for his pedestrian windmill dunk off the backboard pass from Baron Davis. [Actual grades: 49, 46]

Based on these grades, I would have advanced McGee and Ibaka to the finals, rather than McGee and Griffin. But neither of those former guys plays in Los Angeles or performs a featured offensive role for his team.

I also wish to note that Turner Sports / NBATV (which is really the same entity) employees were over-exposed last night. The veterans in the Shooting Stars competition were all Turner personalities: Kenny Smith, Steve Smith, Rick Fox, and Steve Kerr. Chris Webber and K.Smith served as dunk contest coaches, while Brent Barry served as a judge for the dunk contest. Particularly in hard economic times, it is easier to use a talent already on your payroll rather than signing someone to a one-night appearance contract, but on a weekend of all the stars, I would have rather seen Cedric Ceballos, Dee Brown, and Harold Miner coaching, rather than Chris Webber, the master of elbow jump shots.

Early All-Star Picks

With ten weeks gone by in the season, here are my selections for the NBA All-Star teams. The first guy in each position pair is my chosen starter.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

PG: Rondo, Rose

SG: Wade, J.Johnson

C: Howard, Noah

SF: James, G.Wallace

PF: Bosh, J.Smith

Bench: D.Lee, D.Granger

Second team: Jennings, Mo.Williams, R.Allen, B.Lopez, Bogut, Bargnani, Iguodala, Butler, Deng, Pierce, Garnett, Horford

WESTERN CONFERENCE

PG: Paul, Nash

SG: Bryant, Roy

C: Duncan, Kaman

SF: Anthony, Durant

PF: Nowitzki, P.Gasol

Bench: D.Williams, Z.Randolph

Second team: T.Parker, Westbrook, Billups, T.Evans, M.Ellis, Mayo, Bynum, M.Gasol, Stoudemire, David West, Boozer, Gay

Surprisingly Good For You

Who is the best point guard in the Eastern Conference? Recent PG all-stars in the East have either (i) been traded to the West (Billups, Kidd), (ii) fallen into semi-retirement because no team wants him (Iverson), or (iii) suffered multiple long-term injuries (Nelson, Arenas). So with those guys out of the picture (though Arenas is back now) several young points have emerged to look bright and fresh.

Gilbert Arenas: The most senior of this bunch, Arenas was felled by a knee injury that cost him almost all of 2007-08 and 2008-09. Now spry once more, Arenas is, as usual, shooting a horrible percentage from the field while leading his team to mediocrity. Few pundits would laud his handle or his court vision, so what exactly does he bring to the PG gunfight?

Jose Calderon: Calderon is perhaps best known for his streak of 87 straight FTs made from February 2008 until January 2009, the second-longest such feat in league history. He is an adequate passer and scorer, but he shepherds a team playing historically awful defense, not at all resembling a squad on which Chris Bosh would want to remain from autumn 2010 going forward. Hard to conceive of why he should get our nod.

Devin Harris: It was once thought that Harris would be known as the guy whom Dallas traded for Jason Kidd, but in 2008-09 he carved a niche as the speediest young'un' in the Tri-State Area. Sadly, thus far in 2009-10 he has led (?) his team to 17 losses and nary a win. A real leader would not allow that. Now in his sixth year, Harris is out of excuses.

Brandon Jennings: As the tenth pick in the 2009 draft, Jennings seemed an oddity, perhaps destined to be remembered more for his awkwardly timed stage entrance that June night than for his eventual court doings. Later in the summer, Jennings got into trouble for an illicit video that leaked to Youtube, involving BJ complaining about his coach and teammates. Jennings has been awesome in the regular season, however, averaging 22.3, 5.5, and 4.1 while leading his team to eight wins in fifteen games despite multiple injuries, as I noted in this earlier post.

Derrick Rose: Rose blasted brains last April in a seven-game playoff series with Boston. This season he has not looked quite so yowzers, slowed by an ankle injury. Putting aside his SAT-related controversy, there is no doubt that Rose can be crafty and calculating. (In fact, perhaps the admission test imbroglio reveals him as more so.) Rose will probably make all-NBA teams starting next season, but right now he appears a mite tentative on the hardwood.

Rajon Rondo: In that same Cs-Bulls series, Rondo seemed redolent of Magic's facility at scoring, passing, and rebounding. And unlike Mr. Earvin Johnson Jr. he can play some ball-hawking defense, too. Through trade rumors and contract disputes, Rondo is a darn good 1 at only 23 years of age. He is also the only guy on this list with a NBA title ring (and the second, after Harris, with a conference championship).

Maurice "Mo" Williams: I believe Williams looks good only by association with his teammate LeBron James. He was named as an injury replacement in last February's All-Star game, but had never really lit up much incandescence in his previous five seasons from 2003-2008 with Utah and Milwaukee. He is not even the primary ball-handler for his team; that duty falls to Mr. James. On the other hand, Williams did hit seven of seven 3-point attempts in Saturday night's victory over Dallas.

...........................................

Dear readers, I know that only one month has passed in this astounding season, but which PG do you consider worthy of the Eastern Conference All-Star starting nod in Cowboys Stadium? None of these guys are superstars, but I think I would select Rose. In reality, Arenas, who boasts the most name recognition and has already been featured in his own ad campaign with adidas, will probably receive the most votes from fans.

Meanwhile, the Western Conference, boasting Paul, Williams, Parker, Ellis, Billups, Kidd, Westbrook, Nash, and Baron Davis, is full of All-Star caliber 1s. Combined with Ginobili, Roy, Gordon, Bryant, Richardson, Evans, and Kevin Martin (though the latter is injured again) at the "2", it is hard to see how to make enough room for the worthy guards en L'Ouest.

Everybody Is Somebody

Well, the 2009 All-Star reserve selections are in. It’s interesting to compare the results against our earlier analysis.

In the West, the reserves were Nowitzki, Roy, Parker, Billups, O'Neal, Gasol, and West. This is about what one would expect based on the aggregate of experts’ selections, though we might expect Al Jefferson (chosen by 6 of 12 experts) or Carmelo Anthony (chosen by 5 of 12) to be chosen before David West (chosen by 3 of 12). SI.com's Chris Mannix exactly nailed all 12 Western Conference all-star players with his selections.

In the East, the reserves were Pierce, Nelson, Lewis, Johnson, Granger, Bosh, and Harris. These are exactly whom you would expect to be selected based on the aggregate of experts’ selections, with the caveat that Lewis, who received the fewest pundit votes of the players who were actually chosen for the team, was tied with Mo Williams and Vince Carter, garnering 4 pundit votes. It makes sense that Mo Williams was snubbed: between Harris, Nelson, Johnson, Iverson, and Wade, they have enough point guards or quasi-points. And I'm content with Orlando getting three all-star berths and Vince Carter being snubbed, given the Magic’s stunning record. Pundits Marc Stein, Chris Webber, and Gary Payton came closest to perfection, each picking 11 of 12 actual All-Stars in the Eastern Conference.

Kodachrome Maybelline

With too much time on our hands, we at JPO decided to aggregate the 2009 all-star picks made by a variety of pundits:

David Friedman

TNT's Inside the NBA crew (as summarized by David Friedman)

Marc Stein of ESPN

John Hollinger of ESPN

Peter Vecsey

The SI / SI.com crew

Our raw data can be found here (it's a Google Docs spreadsheet). Basically, if a given analyst chose a given player to the All-Star team, we coded that cell as "1". Otherwise, we coded a 0. We then calculated an average score for each player across the 12 analysts. The average score is found in the extreme right-most column of the spreadsheet. We then sorted the players according to their average scores.

The data has a bit of a problem in that some of the analysts (Hollinger, Stein, Vecsey, Friedman, and the TNT guys: Webber, Payton, Smith) took the fans’ choices of starters as a given, and chose only reserves. As a result, those analysts are assuming that Allen Iverson and Amare Stoudemire should be part of the team, and as a result, I coded Iverson and Stoudemire as "1" for those analysts. The SI analysts, who chose starters and reserves, all did not pick Iverson to be a member of the East team, and it is highly likely that none of the other analysts would independently choose Iverson to be a starter; his average score of 0.583 would have probably been zero if the fans had not chosen him. Four of the five SI analysts, though, picked Stoudemire to be on the West team, which suggests that most of the Hollinger Stein/Vecsey/Friedman/TNT group would have picked Stoudemire as a reserve even if he were not a starter chosen by the fans. Thus, Stoudemire's average score of 0.91 is likely only slightly inflated above what it would be if he were not "locked in" by the fans’ vote.

What stands out from this analysis? Surprisingly, 8 of 12 analysts chose Shaquille O’Neal to the West team, equal to the number (8) who chose Pau Gasol, playing for a much better team. Steve Nash, the former six-time all-star starter and two-time MVP, received only two votes, fewer than Paul Millsap, who got three. It seems likely that next year Billups and Shaq will fall out of this discussion, while guys like Durant and Millsap, who received only a couple votes from this sample, will be much more serious contenders. I also would expect Greg Oden and Andrew Bynum to put up all-star caliber performance next year, particularly given the likely strength of their teams.

In the East, I was surprised that 11 of 12 analysts chose Paul Pierce, who is averaging only 19 and 6 while shooting 44% from the field. Also, every analyst picked Joe Johnson, which is mildly surprising: he got more votes than Devin Harris (who has surely wowed more than JJ has) and Jameer Nelson or Mo Williams (who have quarterbacked their teams to a much better record than Johnson has). Also, three of the analysts decided to omit Chris Bosh from their squad. Chris Bosh — he of the 23 points, 10 rebounds, and 50% field goal percentage! — actually lost out to Zydrunas Ilgauskas for backup center on the ballot of two selectors.

My ballot, if anyone asked me, would most closely resemble that of Steve Aschburner or John Hollinger for the East all-stars, and Paul Forrester for the West all-stars.