Surprisingly Good For You

Who is the best point guard in the Eastern Conference? Recent PG all-stars in the East have either (i) been traded to the West (Billups, Kidd), (ii) fallen into semi-retirement because no team wants him (Iverson), or (iii) suffered multiple long-term injuries (Nelson, Arenas). So with those guys out of the picture (though Arenas is back now) several young points have emerged to look bright and fresh.

Gilbert Arenas: The most senior of this bunch, Arenas was felled by a knee injury that cost him almost all of 2007-08 and 2008-09. Now spry once more, Arenas is, as usual, shooting a horrible percentage from the field while leading his team to mediocrity. Few pundits would laud his handle or his court vision, so what exactly does he bring to the PG gunfight?

Jose Calderon: Calderon is perhaps best known for his streak of 87 straight FTs made from February 2008 until January 2009, the second-longest such feat in league history. He is an adequate passer and scorer, but he shepherds a team playing historically awful defense, not at all resembling a squad on which Chris Bosh would want to remain from autumn 2010 going forward. Hard to conceive of why he should get our nod.

Devin Harris: It was once thought that Harris would be known as the guy whom Dallas traded for Jason Kidd, but in 2008-09 he carved a niche as the speediest young'un' in the Tri-State Area. Sadly, thus far in 2009-10 he has led (?) his team to 17 losses and nary a win. A real leader would not allow that. Now in his sixth year, Harris is out of excuses.

Brandon Jennings: As the tenth pick in the 2009 draft, Jennings seemed an oddity, perhaps destined to be remembered more for his awkwardly timed stage entrance that June night than for his eventual court doings. Later in the summer, Jennings got into trouble for an illicit video that leaked to Youtube, involving BJ complaining about his coach and teammates. Jennings has been awesome in the regular season, however, averaging 22.3, 5.5, and 4.1 while leading his team to eight wins in fifteen games despite multiple injuries, as I noted in this earlier post.

Derrick Rose: Rose blasted brains last April in a seven-game playoff series with Boston. This season he has not looked quite so yowzers, slowed by an ankle injury. Putting aside his SAT-related controversy, there is no doubt that Rose can be crafty and calculating. (In fact, perhaps the admission test imbroglio reveals him as more so.) Rose will probably make all-NBA teams starting next season, but right now he appears a mite tentative on the hardwood.

Rajon Rondo: In that same Cs-Bulls series, Rondo seemed redolent of Magic's facility at scoring, passing, and rebounding. And unlike Mr. Earvin Johnson Jr. he can play some ball-hawking defense, too. Through trade rumors and contract disputes, Rondo is a darn good 1 at only 23 years of age. He is also the only guy on this list with a NBA title ring (and the second, after Harris, with a conference championship).

Maurice "Mo" Williams: I believe Williams looks good only by association with his teammate LeBron James. He was named as an injury replacement in last February's All-Star game, but had never really lit up much incandescence in his previous five seasons from 2003-2008 with Utah and Milwaukee. He is not even the primary ball-handler for his team; that duty falls to Mr. James. On the other hand, Williams did hit seven of seven 3-point attempts in Saturday night's victory over Dallas.

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Dear readers, I know that only one month has passed in this astounding season, but which PG do you consider worthy of the Eastern Conference All-Star starting nod in Cowboys Stadium? None of these guys are superstars, but I think I would select Rose. In reality, Arenas, who boasts the most name recognition and has already been featured in his own ad campaign with adidas, will probably receive the most votes from fans.

Meanwhile, the Western Conference, boasting Paul, Williams, Parker, Ellis, Billups, Kidd, Westbrook, Nash, and Baron Davis, is full of All-Star caliber 1s. Combined with Ginobili, Roy, Gordon, Bryant, Richardson, Evans, and Kevin Martin (though the latter is injured again) at the "2", it is hard to see how to make enough room for the worthy guards en L'Ouest.

I Heard The Screen Door Slam

A few surprising things from the Milwaukee-Charlotte game on Friday night:

1. Milwaukee put up 82 shots, against 59 by the Bobcats.

2. Brandon Jennings, the rookie with no college experience, put up 29 points, and is averaging 25 for the season. (He has been a great addition to my fantasy team.)

3. The Bucks are (after Saturday night's game) 8-3, despite their (ostensibly) two best players, Redd and Bogut, missing major time!

Apologies for not adding any trenchant analysis, but these three points really stunned me. Maybe Jason Kidd was wrong about Scott Skiles.

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UPDATE November 23rd: One more thought occurred to me. In the NFL it is common for star college quarterbacks, top-5 draft picks, to sit on the bench for several years until they are deemed ready to lead a team. See Matt Leinart's delirious thoughts after he received some rare playing time yesterday: "Honestly, I haven't played a significant game in 2½ years - it's been a while." Last season Vince Young apparently contemplated suicide because he couldn't get in the game for the Titans, benched for an oldster. Hall of Famer Steve Young didn't become a starter until his seventh season in the league. Yet in the NBA, with some exceptions, lottery picks receive significant PT from their first day. Perhaps some combination of guaranteed contracts plus the sunk-cost fallacy explains the discrepancy: with a commitment of several years to your lovely rookie, you want to get some R on your I. In the NFL, you can just cut the bum who's no good.

In any case, were Luke Ridnour or erstwhile Buck Ramon Sessions any good, Brandon Jennings might find himself in the Steve Young position, understudying Joe Montana. But they're crummy, so Jennings has his spot.

Long Day Livin' In Reseda

Just a thought. How did a Philly team with Allen Iverson, Dikembe Mutombo, and a bunch of total scrubs (Hill, Geiger, Lynch, McKie, Snow, Bell) make the NBA Finals in 2001? And how did a New Jersey team with Jason Kidd, Keith Van Horn, and a bunch of rookie or second-year players (Jefferson, Collins, Martin, MacCulloch) make the Finals the following year? The early post-Jordan years were unbelievably barren for the league. There were only four MVP-level stars (Shaq, Bryant, Duncan, Garnett) in the league back then, and they all played in the West. Kidd, too, played in the West until 2001.

It is unclear why this past decade of drafts has ushered in such a bonanza of talent (generally featuring guys with first names as surnames: James, Wade, Anthony, Howard, Paul, Roy) but David Stern and the 30 owners are surely thankful for it.

Da New School of Witchcraft and Wizardry

Derrick Rose sure is great. I mean that with all sincerity. He shows signs of becoming a HOF, MVP type of superstar. Very few point guards in the last twenty years can say that. How many point guards were MVP contenders? There was Chris Paul, Jason Kidd, Steve Nash, John Stockton, Kevin Johnson, Gary Payton, Tim Hardaway. I don't think Anfernee Hardaway ever rose to MVP level, playing alongside Shaq. Deron Williams is good, but he hasn't been transcendent yet.

And notably, none of the PGs above won a championship. Not one! OK, Payton won a title in 2006 as an ornery backup on Miami, but his luminescent days were long past. The last superstar point guard to lead his team to a title was Isiah Thomas back in 1989 and ’90. Looking at the last 18 championships, the lesson seems to be: If you don't have Shaq, Hakeem, Jordan, Duncan, or Garnett (i.e. a top 15 all-time player), you're out of luck. The Pistons of ’04 were the exception that proved this rule: they were able to prevail only after Duncan, Shaq and Garnett destroyed each other in the West playoffs.

Look at the point guards of all those champions: Rajon Rondo, Tony Parker (well, he was good in 2007, but mediocre in ’05, and so bad in ’03 that Speedy Claxton spelled him), Jason Williams, Chauncey Billups, Derek Fisher, Ron Harper, Avery Johnson, Ron Harper again, Kenny Smith, John Paxson. A serviceable point guard, plus an all-timer and an all-star, is all you need to bring home a title.

(Incidentally, applying that formula, which teams are legitimate championship candidates this year? Boston, Cleveland, Detroit, Los Angeles, New Orleans, San Antonio could all qualify. I hesitate to put Orlando in there, because I don't think Dwight Howard has yet proven that he can hang with the Russells and Chamberlains. I don't think Houston has an all-time legend on its roster, and neither does Denver or Utah. Phoenix and Dallas have O’Neal and Kidd, but they are past their expiration date.)

So Rose is exciting, and his rookie performance thus far is spectacular, but I don't know yet if he can restore glory to the Bulls. As I observed previously, he may be the lure to bring in a marquee free agent in 2010, such as Stoudemire, Bosh, James, or Wade. That would certainly put the Bulls in the mix for the gold.