Ginobili, the new MJ?

I have long lamented the endemically inconsistent or unfair foul calls in the NBA. Though I write often of other b-ball matters, the titular inspiration for our blog was, of course, a non-call that burnished a great man's legend while telling Utah's fan base that their team is simply less worthy of rule-based protection. A two-game sequence this week led us to re-evaluate the state of "star calls" in the NBA.

In Wednesday night's game against Milwaukee, the Spurs' Manu Ginobili hit a game-winning shot over Luc Mbah a Moute to break a tie at the buzzer. MG's play was fearless and without flaw. The problem with Saint Anthony's miracle, though, is that Ginobili took a step and a hop (even more egregious than LeBron James's "crab dribble") prior to his shot, and the referees bizarrely did not call a travel. In postgame remarks, Bucks coach Skiles correctly identified Ginobili's infraction after the game, but unfortunately, the refs done him wrong. Behold the video:



Perhaps this might simply mean that the referees froze under pressure. It happens sometimes, and there is no recourse if the referee fails to blow his whistle in the moment. Once the buzzer has sounded and the ball is through, you cannot go back in time and claw back a player's ill-gotten gains, even if you feel instant regret for your failure to toot. However, I was further surprised during Thursday night's TNT nightcap game. Against Denver, Ginobili hit yet another clutch shot to put the Spurs up by 1 point with about four seconds left in the fourth quarter. The man impresses, On the ensuing possession, Carmelo Anthony took the ball at the top of the key, seized a step on Richard Jefferson, drove to the hoop, and released a floater that sank through the net before time expired. Unfortunately, in the course of so doing, Anthony crashed into Ginobili, who had smartly positioned himself in a vertical stance just outside the charge circle. The referees whistled Anthony for an offensive foul, negating Anthony's basket and ending the game. The Spurs escaped with their 22nd win of the season, against only three defeats. Here is the [virtual] tape:



The Thursday foul was a good call, and I applaud the referees' willingness to whack Anthony on a late-game drive like that. As the archetypal "Jordan pushing off" moment (and LBJ's crab dribble) shows, referees are too often chary to interrupt a superstar's world-historical performance for a measly thing like rule-breaking. Jordan may have pushed off with impunity, but Anthony charged through and suffered just consequences. That is heartening. On the other hand, this incident came after Ginobili received a significant official favor the night before. Although these are only two data points, perhaps one can infer that star favoritism endures, but it is Ginobili and his 22-3 Spurs who now are the most brilliantly shining orb. We cannot fault (indeed, we must laud) Ginobili for donning that garb; success must be had wherever one can find it.

My Father Was A Gambler Down In Georgia

Tonight Brad Miller hit a spectacular Derek Fisher-style catch-and-release shot with three-tenths of a second remaining, which shot apparently would have elevated his Chicago Bulls to a one-point victory over Denver. The referees called the shot good on the floor, but reversed their decision after extensive video review. Thus, the Nuggets escaped with a 90-89 win. [Update: on Wednesday the NBA league office confirmed that the referees made the correct call.]

I had the good fortune to be in attendance at this game. I have seen many live basketball games in my life, but I have never before witnessed such a sudden tumult of emotions in such a short span. After a thrilling fourth quarter, the Bulls managed to tie the game with 10 seconds left on two Derrick Rose free throws, and the whole gym was thinking of overtime. The place was rocking; the plump gent to my left and the kind father behind my back both wanted to exchage high-fives with me. But then when Chauncey Billups drew a foul (on a clearly-done and thick-headed whack from Kirk Hinrich with 0.6 seconds remaining) and fans slowly grasped that their men would lose, the effect was like that of 20,000 children on Christmas morning realizing that Santa overslept and failed to fill the stocking.

As the Bulls prepared to inbound the ball at 0.3 seconds, half the crowd was tottering on concrete stairways, making for the exits. My friends asked if we could leave too, but I said: "No, if the Bulls make this shot, we can tell our grandchildren in fifty years that we were there when the Bulls beat the Nuggets!" My vantage point was behind the Bulls’ basket, so I couldn't quite see what happened as Miller received the pass and flung up a set shot. But when a thunderous cry radiated upward through the arena bowl, I knew that yes, I would have that tale for the little Bhels. My friends and I felt exhilarated.

For several minutes thereafter each squad huddled near its respective bench; we soon inferred that the referees needed to review this play on video. Joakim Noah, caught on camera during this nervous time, patted Brad Miller's head and grinned, seemingly confident that the play would stand. Meanwhile, Chauncey Billups looked cool as ice. (How could both squads both be so confident? In an imminent post, possibly tomorrow, I will explore the issue of over-optimism among ballers.) Naturally, the Chicago scoreboard operator showed the tally as Chicago 91, Denver 90, hoping that such facts on the ground (or facts in the sky) could help to establish some finality for the home side.

After a while, the arena announcer told us the answer: "The referees have ruled the shot no good. Thank you for coming, everyone!" That Chicago lost the game was left for us to figure out. Stunned, we walked out into a chilly autumnal evening. Folks around us uttered vile insults revolving around the word "nuggets".

Here is the video of tonight's game, including Miller's crazy shot:

In a way this night was like Election Day of 2000, nine years ago: Gore took Florida! No, Bush took Florida! No, we're heading for a recount! There are few athletic settings where apparent outcomes can switch so fast. The best recent example I can think is last February's Super Bowl, in which the Cardinals completed a thrilling comeback with a go-ahead touchdown at 2:58 of the fourth quarter ... and then Pittsburgh came right back with a winning touchdown at 0:35. With the potential for rapid scoring, football can hold your heart in a martini glass and shake it real good ... but basketball does this even better.

Bringing Balance to the Force

I caught the Nuggets-Celtics game on television last night. Boston was getting bullied by defensive hustle plays: Nenê Hilario repeatedly ripped the ball out of Celtics’ hands; Renaldo Balkman, as advertised, always chased down loose balls, and quixotically got a lot of court time. Chauncey Billups was steady down the stretch and maintained the team’s cool every time Boston made a comeback.

Many critics have shredded Denver’s decision to jettison Marcus Camby for a draft pick last summer. But in light of this second trade, I think it makes more sense. The roster and salary structure were badly unbalanced in 2007-08. Denver was paying about $30 MM to the troika of Martin, Hilario, and Camby, three oft-injured big men. You don’t need to be paying star money to three of those guys. Two, maybe. Meanwhile, Denver had three volume scorers in Smith, Anthony and Iverson who couldn’t really co-exist together. Smith needed to be resigned in the summer of ’08, adding further pressure to the salary load. Iverson’s contract ends after 2008-09 and Denver was unlikely to re-sign him; they weren’t getting anywhere in the playoffs with him. So in 2009-10, Denver could (i) be paying $7.65 MM to Camby, or alternatively (ii) they could acquire a suitable point guard like Billups (who gets paid $12.1 MM that year) who could expertly run the show. Camby is older than Martin and Hilario (and his contract seems the most sensible of the three) so it was easier and more logical to trade him.

I think the outlook for Denver now is certainly better than it was six months ago. If only Carmelo could learn to play defense…