Streaks of Great Seasons Are Bigger In Texas

A few quick points in response to John Hollinger's latest column on ESPN about the remarkable decade-long success of the Mavericks and Spurs.

1. It is not likely that Dallas regrets the effective swap of Steve Nash for Erick Dampier back in the summer of 2004. The Mavs got to the NBA Finals in 2006 and then amassed the best record in '07 without Nash. Nash is a fine point guard who excels in the open system of Mike D'Antoni and Alvin Gentry system, but he suffers on the defensive side of the court and surely would not have thrived under Avery Johnson.

2. Hollinger ponders why there is no training academy for new NBA owners. Existing owners have no incentive to educate new owners on good management practices. In the McDonald's regime, every franchisee wants to keep the quality of the McD brand high; incidents of scalding coffee or French fries cooked with pig lard are not good for business. And each McDonald's store is not competing with another; each outlet tends to be at least one mile away from the nearest saffron arch. In the NBA, however, the league's reputation is not harmed much if Minnesota fields a crummy team; a few instances of abysmality are expected by nation-wide fans. Additionally, teams are competing against each other, at least in basketball terms.

3. Finally, Hollinger says that the probability of a randomly selected team winning 50 games, then doing it again the following year has historically been about 70%. Thus, the chance of ten consecutive 50-win repeats is some tiny fraction. That is a fine approach to elementary statistics. However, we are not considering the case of a randomly selected team of unknown identity. We're talking about the MAVS and the SPURS. These teams have not merely strung together a crazy, fluky, hot streak with tons of lucky breaks. Based on what we know about the quality of their organizations, we should update our estimate of their probability of attaining repeat 50-win seasons. In other words, by now we should not be surprised.

Knowing When To Fold 'Em

ESPN.com's Henry Abbott today posits that NBA teams are, in recent years, quicker to give up on high draft picks compared to the good old days. Is this really so? Abbott declines to give one bit of evidence for his position.

Looking at the top 11 picks in the seven drafts from 2003-2007, I find the following players who were traded, or non-renewed, by their original teams within three years after the draft. (I am not counting any player who was traded on draft day or very shortly thereafter by the team that drafted him. I am defining "original team" to mean the team that the player suited up with in his first training camp.)

2003: Darko Milicic, TJ Ford, Michael Sweetney
2004: Luke Jackson, Rafael Araujo
2005: Ike Diogu
2006: Adam Morrison, Randy Foye, Shelden Williams, Patrick O'Bryant, Mouhamed Sene
2007: Yi Jianlian, Spencer Hawes, Acie Law
2008: Michael Beasley, Joe Alexander, Jerryd Bayless
2009: Terrence Williams

That is 18 guys out of 77, or 23%.

What of the seven drafts from 1996-2002?
1996: Marcus Camby, Stephon Marbury, Lorenzen Wright, Samaki Walker, Todd Fuller
1997: Chauncey Billups, Antonio Daniels, Tony Battie, Ron Mercer, Tim Thomas, Danny Fortson, Tariq Abdul-Wahad
1998: Mike Bibby, Robert Traylor, Jason Williams, Larry Hughes
1999: Elton Brand, Rip Hamilton, Andre Miller, Trajan Langdon
2000: Darius Miles, Mike Miller, DerMarr Johnson, Jérôme Moïso
2001: Eddie Griffin, Rodney White, Joe Johnson, Kedrick Brown
2002: Drew Gooden, Nikoloz Tskitishvili, Dajuan Wagner, Caron Butler

That is 32 guys out of 77, or 42%.

It appears that, contra Abbott, team management have actually become LESS willing to part with lottery picks early in their career. Perhaps part of this dynamic can be explained by the more talent-rich drafts of recent years, compared to fin-de-siecle times. I cannot explain why the Jimmy Carter administration produced so few basketball-bound babies of star caliber, whereas the Reagan years of natality have been replete with talent. However, the trend is undeniable. 1996 was unquestionably a good draft year (three future MVPs in Iverson, Bryant, Nash, just to start) but most of the top picks in the immediate years after that were stiffs: Olowokandi, Marcus Fizer, Kwame Brown... But starting with 2003's cohort of James, Wade, Bosh, and Anthony, several Hall of Fame-caliber players have entered the league. Dwight Howard, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Kevin Durant, Derrick Rose, and Blake Griffin all could be HOF-bound if they maintain their current pace for another decade. Why give up on players like that?

Whether the influx of talent masks a secular change in GM philosophy regarding young "busts" is hard to say.

Foreign-Owned League

Watching a typical NBA television broadcast, one realizes that almost all of the league's corporate sponsors are based outside the United States:

T-Mobile, which is one of the top four mobile phone service providers in the United States, is owned by Deutsche Telekom of Germany. T-Mobile's ads featuring Charles Barkley and Dwyane Wade are ubiquitous during nearly every national NBA broadcast.

Kia - This Korean car company became an NBA sponsor in 2008 and bought the title of "official NBA auto sponsor" in 2009, supplanting Japan's Toyota in that role. Kia then extended the relationship in 2010. Kia attaches its name to ESPN's NBA pregame show, various individual awards, and various elements of the All-Star weekend.

Hyundai is another Korean automaker, known in hoops circles for attaching its name to TNT's "Inside the NBA".

Haier is a Chinese home appliances manufacturer that has become a "global strategic partner" of the NBA, whatever that means. Their television advertisements use the homophony between their company name and the English word "higher", much like ads for Chivas Regal scotch play on the resemblance to the word "chivalry". This is semantics for eleven-year-olds.

BBVA, one of Spain's largest banks, last fall signed an agreement to be the "Official Bank of the NBA". During and after the 2008 financial crisis, BBVA managed to buy up several troubled American banks and now owns over 700 retail bank branches in the US, all under the "BBVA Compass" brand name.

All of these foreign-based firms sell products to US consumers, of course, which makes the NBA, a touchstone of youth culture, an attractive marketing vehicle. While other American pro sports have signed up American companies as sponsors (a typical NFL broadcast features Brett Favre shilling for Sears, overgrown men wolfing Campbell's Chunky Soup ladled by Donovan McNabb's mother, and a few Bud Light ads), the NBA has become beholden to international patrons. This certainly fits with Commissioner David Stern's long-marching goal of bringing the league to hundreds of millions in Europe and Asia.

Things were not always thus. Reading David Halberstam's The Breaks of the Game, I recently learned that brands like Ford and Chevrolet were inveterate sponsors of the Association back in the 1970s. Perhaps large American consumer-focused companies no longer see NBA fans as an attractive market; are hoops-heads too poor, too pigmented, or possibly too young? (I thought a maxim of marketing is to sign up young customers while they are still forming their habits and loyalties.) Alternatively, foreign-based corporations, perhaps applying different marketing strategies due to their previous nonexistence in this country, may simply value those fans more. It could even be that these international entities can juice their reputation in their home countries by associating with the NBA.

These days, it seems that all the action in the US economy is in the digital space. By building a cool website like a Netflix, Twitter, or Groupon, an entrepreneur can scale his customer base very quickly, build a following in the zeitgeist, and attract billions in capital. Lions of the American "old economy" no longer have a need for the NBA. When will we see the Google Halftime Show or the Pandora HORSE Challenge?

What's The Matter With Kansas (Alums)?

Well, if we were confused about whether star calls persist in the NBA, last Saturday's Wizards-Heat game was sobering. The Heat completed a stout fourth-quarter comeback when Dwyane Wade dashed into the lane, received a foul call resulting from Andray Blatche's fairly incidental contact (of course!) and hit a go-ahead free throw with about seven seconds left. Kirk Hinrich then dribbled the length of the court, drove to the hoop, attempted a layup, and was whacked by both Chris Bosh and LeBron James. No foul call, though. The buzzer sounded and Miami walked off the court with a 1-point victory.

Fast-forward the video to about the 3:40 mark:

The Point Guard Controversy

On a busy Friday night, the Heat vs. Knicks garnered most of the headlines. Few people probably had their eye on Jazz vs. Hornets. HOSS did. That match-up pitted Deron Williams against Chris Paul, two of the best point guards (if not the best) that they NBA has to offer.

I cannot remember a time when there was such a glut of elite point guards in the NBA. At the beginning of the season, this was my list of the top NBA PGs, but given how well they are all playing, this ranking seems to fluctuate on a daily basis:

1. Chris Paul

2. Steve Nash

3. Deron Williams

4. Rajon Rondo

5. Derrick Rose

6. Tony Parker

7. Russell Westbrook

Why does this make HOSS giddy? Two reasons. First: the sheer aesthetic beauty of watching an elite PG in action. Watching a slasher like Amare, D-Wade, or LeBron slice up defenders and throw down is like watching a skilled boxer deliver a devastating left hook. In contrast, watching a PG set the table on offense is like watching a master artist adorning a canvass -- you may not understand why each stroke was so brilliant until you see the final product (the pinpoint pass for the easy lay-up).

Second: an elite point guard is the surest way to turn a team into a contender. The proof of the pudding is in the taste: Consider all of the teams that appear to be overachieving this season, and virtually all of them have one of the elite PGs leading their offense:

San Antonio (22-3) (Parker)

Boston (21-4) (Rondo)

Oklahoma City (19-8) (Westbrook)

Utah (18-9) (Williams)

Chicago (16-8) (Rose)

New Orleans (16-10) (Paul)

Ginobili, the new MJ?

I have long lamented the endemically inconsistent or unfair foul calls in the NBA. Though I write often of other b-ball matters, the titular inspiration for our blog was, of course, a non-call that burnished a great man's legend while telling Utah's fan base that their team is simply less worthy of rule-based protection. A two-game sequence this week led us to re-evaluate the state of "star calls" in the NBA.

In Wednesday night's game against Milwaukee, the Spurs' Manu Ginobili hit a game-winning shot over Luc Mbah a Moute to break a tie at the buzzer. MG's play was fearless and without flaw. The problem with Saint Anthony's miracle, though, is that Ginobili took a step and a hop (even more egregious than LeBron James's "crab dribble") prior to his shot, and the referees bizarrely did not call a travel. In postgame remarks, Bucks coach Skiles correctly identified Ginobili's infraction after the game, but unfortunately, the refs done him wrong. Behold the video:



Perhaps this might simply mean that the referees froze under pressure. It happens sometimes, and there is no recourse if the referee fails to blow his whistle in the moment. Once the buzzer has sounded and the ball is through, you cannot go back in time and claw back a player's ill-gotten gains, even if you feel instant regret for your failure to toot. However, I was further surprised during Thursday night's TNT nightcap game. Against Denver, Ginobili hit yet another clutch shot to put the Spurs up by 1 point with about four seconds left in the fourth quarter. The man impresses, On the ensuing possession, Carmelo Anthony took the ball at the top of the key, seized a step on Richard Jefferson, drove to the hoop, and released a floater that sank through the net before time expired. Unfortunately, in the course of so doing, Anthony crashed into Ginobili, who had smartly positioned himself in a vertical stance just outside the charge circle. The referees whistled Anthony for an offensive foul, negating Anthony's basket and ending the game. The Spurs escaped with their 22nd win of the season, against only three defeats. Here is the [virtual] tape:



The Thursday foul was a good call, and I applaud the referees' willingness to whack Anthony on a late-game drive like that. As the archetypal "Jordan pushing off" moment (and LBJ's crab dribble) shows, referees are too often chary to interrupt a superstar's world-historical performance for a measly thing like rule-breaking. Jordan may have pushed off with impunity, but Anthony charged through and suffered just consequences. That is heartening. On the other hand, this incident came after Ginobili received a significant official favor the night before. Although these are only two data points, perhaps one can infer that star favoritism endures, but it is Ginobili and his 22-3 Spurs who now are the most brilliantly shining orb. We cannot fault (indeed, we must laud) Ginobili for donning that garb; success must be had wherever one can find it.

Have A Holly, McConnelly Christmas

Today Henry Abbott of ESPN/Truehoop attempts to analyze the effect of this week's federal tax deal upon the NBA. To quickly review the proposed tax deal, the lower income tax rates (compared to Clinton-era rates from the 1990s) passed in 2001 will be extended for 2011 and 2012. Prior to this proposed deal between President Obama and Republicans, U.S. income tax rates were scheduled to rise to Clinton rates effective January 1st, 2011. Additionally, under this proposed deal, long-term capital gains tax rates will be extended.

In a couple posts and yesterday, Abbott suggests, citing some extremely crude analyses, that the tax savings for owners and players associated with this week's federal tax deal could amount to $160 million, one-fifth of the supposed $800 million aggregate deficit suffered by owners in 2009-10. (Some of that savings consists of reduced tax liability on player salaries, but presumably the equilibrium wage paid to players could thereby be lowered, because they could then take home more of their gross wage, and thus owners could realize those savings.)

However, the flaw in Abbott's analysis is that the $800 million deficit was incurred under the 2010 tax regime — which will also be the 2011 tax regime, under President Obama's proposals. The supposed $160 MM savings are not really "an infusion of cash from a third party", as Abbott frames it, but rather the avoidance of what would've been a withdrawal of cash from the NBA pot, had Bush tax rates been allowed to rise to Clinton tax rates in 2011. If economic conditions in 2009-10 are held constant for 2010-11, then the owners should still be running an $800 million deficit, because the federal tax liability will be the same.

The bottom line is that the Obama tax deal will be nice for owners, but only because it avoids a hit. It does not improve their economic position compared to the 2010 situation, and thus it does not bring the owners any closer to the NBPA in ongoing labor negotiations. And if you believe in Ricardian equivalence, the "savings" from the avoided tax hit is all funny money anyway.

Joakim Noah, Un Grand Nonpareil

Back in the spring of 2006, many observers thought Joakim Noah could be the first pick in the NBA draft if he were to make himself pro-eligible. With the onset of the no-high-school-students rule from the 2005 Collective Bargaining Agreement, the draft pool was unusually weak that year, and Noah's fiery effort in the NCAA tournament made him the most lustrous of gems.

In the event, Noah returned to the University of Florida and waited until the 2007 draft (after collecting his second college championship) to go pro. Noah was selected ninth, after two of his teammates, among others.

Noah is somewhat thin for a center at a listed weight of 232 lbs, but he may be the hardest-working 5 man in the league. After some early struggles, Noah now anchors the Bulls' defense and ranks second in the league in rebounding. Looking back at the 2006 draft, Noah's first opportunity to join the big leagues, is there any player you would rather have than Noah? The top pick, Andrea Bargnani, excels only at one end of the floor, as we demonstrated in a video post last year. The roundly-considered best player from that draft, Brandon Roy, has permanently arthritic knees that are now slowing him and might soon end his career. LaMarcus Aldridge and Rudy Gay are nice scorers, but have not yet made an All-Star team. Rajon Rondo is one of the top five point guards in the league and a starter in two NBA Finals, but Noah's enduring hustle probably makes him more valuable than Rondo. Perhaps the early predictions of a #1 selection were right on. Even looking at the 2007 draft, when Noah was actually chosen, outside of Kevin Durant there is no one whom I would prefer to Noah.

We recently had the chance to attend the Bulls-Warriors game in Chicago on November 11th. The Bulls jumped out to an early 30-point lead before the halftime buzzer, rendering our final two quarters a time of seat-hopping and T-shirt chasing. Still, from our high-altitude section, we were able to capture some video showing what makes Noah so great.

I. Noah The Dishman
With time, Noah has become one of the best passing big men in the league. In this clip, Noah gets the ball from Derrick Rose, who cuts to the corner. Golden State's Stephen Curry, defending Rose, loses track of the latter. Noah exchanges a glance with Rose; Rose cuts to the hoop and Noah delivers a perfect bounce pass that Rose collects to slam (two-handedly!) through the hoop.

Observe here as Noah calls for the ball, recognizing that Luol Deng has a mismatch against the same Curry. Noah seems to recognize Deng's opportunity even before Deng sees it. Upon Noah's receipt of the ball, Deng cuts hard to the hoop, receives a sharp pass, dribbles once, and scores.

Generosity is often rewarded. Later in the game, Deng returns the favor with an easy assist pass to Noah:



II. Noah the Hustler

Another of Noah's winning attributes is his willingness to put his body in jeopardy to help the team. Watch the first six seconds of this video as Noah scraps hard with Andris Biedrins for post position:

Here, Noah, all 83 inches of him, hits the floor hard at the 0:06 mark to chase a loose ball:

Finally, consider this video, in which Noah's fleet hands force a steal from Monta Ellis, keying a fast break and an easy basket by Deng:



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** Regarding our blog title, we're not sure if "grand" can be used colloquially as a noun in French the same way hoopheads use "big" as a noun in our language, but we'll hope for the best.

Fattening Up The Pig In Hogtown

Remember when I said that Mike Illitch's possibly gaining control of the Detroit Pistons (in addition to the Tigers and Red Wings) would be a terrible idea?

Well, that goes double for the possible acquisition rumored today by Rogers Communications of the Leafs, Raptors, and Air Canada Centre (in addition to the Blue Jays and Skydome). Econ 101, my friends. If Raptors fans thought their ticket prices were bad enough...

High Casualty Rate in Boston

The Celtics are playing well so far (save for an odd one-point loss to Toronto), but soon they will fiercely feel the tension of thermodynamics' Second Law. The team is going to suffer with their older roster and their early crush of injuries. It is hard to roll over top-quality basketball players when your squad has the following infirmities:

Rajon Rondo is battling plantar fasciitis and a hamstring problem.

Jermaine O'Neal has chronic knee tendinitis.

Kendrick Perkins is recovering from major surgery to his knee ligaments.

Delonte West just broke his wrist.

Semih Erden has a nagging shoulder problem that could eventually end his season.

Avery Bradley is recovering from a serious ankle injury.

Besides their five starters, and the aforementioned injured guys, they have Glen Davis, Marquis Daniels, Nate Robinson, Von Wafer, and Luke Harangody. These lads may be spry enough to power the Celtics through wintry challenges that may come, but when the air turns vernal, they will need the bulk of their bigs and the defensive agility of West and Bradley. The Celtics were wise to sign fifteen players for their roster, the maximum allowed under NBA rules. Rather than prizing cost savings, Celtics ownership is showing that the real lucre is its desired catch.

Why Dallas Cannot Win The Championship

Last night the Mavericks fielded three seven-footers — Haywood, Chandler, Nowitzki — playing 87 combined minutes. The Bulls played only one big man: Joakim Noah, for 41 minutes. If you want to deem Taj Gibson a big man or "power" player, note that he is 6'9" and 225 pounds. Most NBA players of his body type are small forwards. (Gibson's teammate at the 3-spot, Luol Deng, is the same height as Gibson and only five pounds thinner. The Mavericks' small forward, Caron Butler, is a couple pounds heavier than Gibson.) All of the Bulls' bench players were skinny guards.

Additionally, Dallas boasts at least two players who are billed as unusually good rebounders for their positions, in Jason Kidd and Shawn Marion.

The Bulls still outrebounded Dallas 59-34 and won the game by five points.

John Wall's Impact

The Wizards had 23 fast-break points on November 12th, John Wall's last full game before he injured his ankle.

Last night, November 17th, without John Wall, the Wizards had 2 fast-break points.

Trials and Tribulations of the Super Friends

For the zillionth time, it is way too early to begin drafting epitaphs for the Miami Heat Super Friends. LeBron, D-Wade and CB4 may still end up hoisting the Larry O’Brien trophy this summer or next. That said, their early troubles reinforce the conventional wisdom about basketball.

We at JPO are fond of saying that basketball is a team game. The NBA ain’t no fantasy league, son. Just because LeBron and D-Wade averaged near 30 ppg last year, that doesn’t mean they’ll net 60 together.

Here is one big problem with the Heat’s roster. It’s often said that the two most important positions on any team – and toughest to fill – are point guard and center. A skilled PG (particularly a skilled, pass-first PG) is a rare commodity. So is a skilled, traditional big man (i.e., a back-to-the basket post-up presence à la Tim Duncan; not a face-up Euro Big Man like Dirk Nowitzki or Andrea Bargnani).

The Super Friends are the Super Swingmen. None of them plays point guard or is a back-to-the-basket big man. Sure, both D-Wade and LeBron are skilled enough to play PG, but that’s not the position at which they are most skilled. Moreover, although Chris Bosh formally plays a big-man position, he is a finesse player – closer to Nowitzki than to Duncan. On a team like the Raptors, where Bosh was the main scoring threat, that’s fine. But on a team with LeBron and D-Wade, you don’t need another finesse scorer. You need a bruiser, a banger – someone to knock the ink off the other teams’ tattoos and get rebounds and cheap buckets down low. If the Super Friends are going to be more than a travelling rodeo show, they will need to either (a) trade Bosh for a premier post-up presence, or (b) go way over the salary cap to bring in an Erick Dampier-type player to spell Bosh during the 4^th quarters of real games.

Both Chris Paul and Carmelo Anthony have mused about playing for the Knicks. A team with ‘Melo, CP3 and Amare Stoudemire would be better than the Super Friends. I’m not talking early-season better; I mean playoff-time better. The division of labor on that team would be clear: CP3, the ball-handler; ‘Melo, the swingman; Amare, the big man.

I’m sure that Pat Riley recognizes this. What I’m not sure is whether Riles has the balls to fix it and to make this trade: Chris Bosh for Paul Millsap or Chris Bosh for Carlos Boozer. Nobody is saying that either Millsap or Boozer is more skilled than Bosh. They aren’t. But either one of them will transform the Heat from Pretender into Contender.

Stay Chilled, Ye Who Would Scorch the Scorchers

The Miami Heat have struggled against good teams thus far this season. Their interior defense, in particular, needs some work. Perhaps they need to sign Erick Dampier. However, let us not forget that the season is only NINE GAMES OLD. The Heat have until 2014, and perhaps until 2016 if all three of their stars exercise their contract options, to prove the haters wrong. Their talent is too great to continue losing at this pace; I would be extremely surprised if they do not win 50 games. Let us refrain from too much cackling until at least next spring.

The Punjabis Are Here

Well, my nearly two-year-old predictions of a Great Punjabi Hope for basketball have finally come true:

Satnam Singh Bhamara did not grow up dreaming about playing in the NBA -- because he never saw the game. He didn't even know what basketball was.

He just grew.

And his dreams were mostly what he read in books, limited to his life in a tiny village in the middle of nowhere, a faraway outpost in the state of Punjab, India, close to the Pakistan border, where his father farmed, and he too, expected to farm one day.

[...]

In a country of 1.3 billion people, 7-foot, 250-pound Satnam Singh Bhamar has become a beacon for basketball hope.

At age 14.

"Satnam could one day do the same thing for India that Yao Ming did in China -- put the spotlight on basketball through an entire country,'' said Troy Justice, the NBA Director of Basketball Operations in India who has watched him play many times. "It really could be something.''

[...]

Satnam came to the United States for the first time six weeks ago, one of 29 student athletes (both male and female in three different sports) from India who will train at the renowned IMG Academy in Bradenton, Fla, as part of a new scholarship program to promote, develop and manage sports and entertainment in that country.

Although the program was designed to last three months before this group leaves and another arrives, Satnam and his burgeoning skills won't be going home anytime soon. It's like gold has been discovered in the hills, and this diamond in the rough will be carefully polished.

It is somewhat ironic that the AOL Fanhouse article glowingly compares the 7-foot Bhamara's body type to that of Greg Oden or Andrew Bynum. Of course, we know that both of the latter guys have congenital problems that make high-level, high-impact basketball difficult: Oden has one leg longer than the other, and Bynum has unusually loose knee ligaments. Both of those players have missed roughly half the possible games in their pro careers due to multiple injuries. Additionally, Oden played only one year of college ball and Bynum skipped college; both missed their chance to allow their growing bodies time to slowly adjust to a game played among world-class athletes.

What will happen if young Satnam Singh Bhamara turns out to be similarly cursed? Many other young athletes around the world have been identified as potential national champions, isolated from their families and peers, and brought to sports incubators (sometimes in the United States) to train. If a tennis prospect flames out, the disappointment foisted on him or her is probably relatively low because tennis-sized athletes are not hard to find. But there are few seven-foot-plussers. If my hypothesis proves correct and the Punjab produces more basketball big men, then perhaps Bhamara can comfortably fail without feeling that he is failing a whole country, as Yao Ming surely has thought at times. We wish Bhamara the best of luck in his journey, but caution observers to reject the "Satnam could one day do the same thing for India that Yao Ming did in China -- put the spotlight on basketball through an entire country" rubric that makes the young man even more freakish than he already is.

The Last Jewel Tarnished In Detroit

I have long openly proclaimed my love for the Detroit Pistons, the team that tickled my solipsistic need for local grandeur as a young boy. Detroit won championships in 1989 and 1990, and then did it again in 2004 after I had grown to adulthood. During the recent fat days, I forgot how Detroit fell into a long period of mediocrity after Isiah Thomas and Bill Laimbeer retired in 1994 (and even in the last three years of their careers). Rookie Grant Hill's entry into the Pistons' starting lineup in November 1994 seemed to augur well for their recovery, but Terry Mills and Theo Ratliff were not sufficiently stout big men in the mid-to-late 1990s to help Detroit get past better Eastern teams like Orlando and Atlanta (to say nothing of Jordan's Chicago, Mourning's Heat, and Ewing's Knicks).

After six straight Eastern Conference Finals appearances in the decade just completed, the Pistons are now a team in terminal decline. They still field three-fifths of the starting lineup that won them a championship seven seasons ago (and lost in Game 7 of the Finals six seasons ago), but those men have lost their erstwhile vigor and hops. The team is now 0-5 after losing to Atlanta last night.

About 24 months ago, when the Piston's recent run of success ended with the trade of Chauncey Billups, I wrongly called team president Joe Dumars a genius. At the time, I thought the trade would allow Detroit's good fortune to endure for a few more seasons, but the team rapidly crashed, falling to the worst Eastern playoff seed in 2009 and missing the playoffs entirely in '10. Unfortunately, Rodney Stuckey just is not as good as Billups performed in his finest days. And the Pistons' recent draft picks have not soared: Jason Maxiell and Austin Daye are either too short or too thin, and Jonas Jerebko just tore his Achilles' tendon. Georgetown center Greg Monroe is yet unproven.

Somehow I feel a Dylan Thomas interlude would be appropriate here:

Managing an NBA roster long-term is difficult, for the assets have a unique inverted-U-shaped life cycle. Players tend to peak in about their sixth year, maintain that high for perhaps four years, then begin to slowly decline. At any given time, a roster is probably made up of heterogeneous players at different stages of their careers. If only a couple of your guys are declining, that is fine. If necessary, they can be traded as "expiring contracts" for better, younger players. But the Pistons' top six players during their six-year run of excellence (counting Antonio McDyess, who signed on prior to the 2004-05 season) were all drafted between 1995 and 1999, save for Tayshaun Prince, drafted in 2002. Prince was a four-year college player, so he is about as old as a college freshman drafted in 1999, like Lamar Odom. Thus, the team collectively aged very rapidly. Billups was dumped in 2008, and McDyess and Rasheed Wallace were shown the door in 2009. The remaining guys — Prince, Richard Hamilton, and Ben Wallace — can't do what they used to. I would eat my hat if Prince could replicate his famous block of Reggie Miller today.

I cannot say with great specificity how Dumars should have managed his team differently. He probably should have traded Prince and Hamilton one or two seasons ago, when they still were good. Dumars also has proven to be a poor judge of young talent, to say the least. Had he drafted Aaron Brooks over Rodney Stuckey in 2007, or Holiday/Lawson/Teague/Maynor/Collison/Douglas over Austin Daye in 2009, the team would have a legitimate point guard now. The team also had no meaningful draft pick in 2006 or 2008, which helped to preserve the roster's age distribution. Perhaps the team needs a 65-loss season to sink lower than their pride would previously allow them to venture, so that they can pick up a real stud through the draft.

Mad Men Is An Apt Descriptor

Mad may not be the right word, but perhaps daft, silly, or full of hubris might better describe the advertising gurus who thought of the two ads shown below.

Below is LeBron James's follow-up to his romantic-comedy act from July wherein he entertained various suitors for seven days (after keeping them guessing for the previous two years) and then obnoxiously announced his Decision via a television special. In this new video, James seems to acknowledge that he angered his fans, and provocatively climbs aboard a literal bulldozer to represent what he did to their feelings last summer. So after James inappropriately and narcissistically drew attention to himself four months ago, he... does exactly the same thing, without even apologizing for the earlier behavior!



Then there is the new set of Adidas ads featuring actor Ken Jeong wearing a gold costume and calling himself "Slim Chin". We are led to believe, in some ironic sleight, that Slim's apparent riches are derived from his unusual fast-ness. Meanwhile, Derrick Rose reveals himself to be far faster than Slim, showing that shoes, in this ironic universe, can top natural talent.

This is fine as far as it goes, and defenders of the ad might say that everything is tongue-in-cheek, and Jeong's Hollywood reputation is sufficiently established that we can laugh with him, rather than at him. Still, Jeong's ken (pun intended) seems to extend only to roles in which he acts silly and mincing while emphasizing his exotically Asian bloodline. Recall his naked turn in The Hangover. I doubt that enough viewers of this new Adidas ad "get it" to render his minstrelsy innocuous.

Knicks Need To Get Real

Tony Parker signed a contract extension with San Antonio yesterday, removing one of the New York Knicks' top targets for next summer's free-agency cycle. Having promised their fans a quick return to glory redolent of Richard Nixon's first term, the Knicks need to get cracking. Unfortunately, posing a serious challenge to the Miami Heat over the next half-decade will require that the Knicks assemble a crew of all-NBA stars of comparable ability to James/Bosh/Wade, and few of those are available. The Knicks could have drafted Brandon Jennings, probably the best young point guard in the league, back in 2009, but instead chose Jordan Hill, who was later dumped in a trade and now rides the bench for Houston. The Knicks have several players with enough raw talent to make All-Star teams, including Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, and Anthony Randolph, but none have yet blossomed to that extent.

Many reports indicate that Carmelo Anthony is Manhattan bound, either through a trade this season or as a free agent next summer. Unfortunately, a team featuring Amar'e Stoudemire and Anthony will be offensively potent, but will not have anything close to the defensive ability required to seriously oppose Miami and Orlando. As this article makes clear, James and Wade are wholly dedicated to dominating any team on their defensive end, and are two of the four best offensive players in the league.

The Knicks probably hope they can somehow acquire Anthony and Chris Paul, who will be a free agent in 2012. But if Paul shows an inclination to sign a contract extension with the Hornets or join some other team, the Knicks might be wiser to look further west: Several 2007 draftees will be available as restricted free agents next July, including, inter alia, Greg Oden, the best two-way young center in the league, when he is healthy. (I am removing 24-year-old Dwight Howard from the "young" category, as he is now in his seventh pro season.) Oden's team chose not to extend his rookie contract, and he will surely be eager to prove himself during the coming season. The Knicks could make a splash by conveying to Oden an offer that Portland cannot fail to refuse.

Out With The Old, In With the Old in Miami

An October 10th article from the Orlando Sentinel claims that the Magic are "way ahead" of the Miami Heat in roster continuity. However, despite their high-profile free-agent signings, the Heat, surprisingly, may have more roster continuity from 2009-10 to 2010-11 than nearly any other NBA team.

Consider the following 2009-10 players who are under contract for the new season:
Dwyane Wade
Udonis Haslem
Mario Chalmers
Carlos Arroyo
Shavlik Randolph
Jamaal Magloire
Joel Anthony
Kenny Hasbrouck
James Jones

New players feature (i) two second-round draft picks, Dexter Pittman and Da'Sean Butler; (ii)several value free-agent signings — Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Eddie House, Juwan Howard, and Mike Miller; and (iii) oh yeah, LeBron James and Chris Bosh.

In addition, Coach Erik Spoelstra and team President Pat Riley remain in their posts.

To be fair, Hasbrouck and Randolph have non-guaranteed contracts, as do Pittman and Butler; two of those players will be cut in this month's training camp. However, if Hasbrouck and Randolph were to both make the team, a roster featuring 60% returning players is pretty good. No other top contender returns more than 10 players:

Lakers: Bryant, Fisher, Gasol, Bynum, Artest, Brown, Vujacic, Walton, Odom

Celtics: Rondo, Allen, Perkins, Pierce, Garnett, Robinson, Davis, Daniels

Magic: Nelson, Carter, Howard, Lewis, Pietrus, Bass, Anderson, Gortat, Williams, Redick

Spurs: Duncan, Ginobili, Parker, Jefferson, Blair, McDyess, Bonner, Hill

When Tennis Stars Never Die

Watching the US Open tennis championship during the past few days on various TV channels, I've noticed that most of the announcers are past greats of the tennis circuit: John McEnroe, Jimmy Connors, Martina Navratilova, Pam Shriver, Tracy Austin, Lindsay Davenport, and so forth. I am reminded of the contrast with televised pro hoops, where color commentators like Mark Jackson, Tom Tolbert, Jon Barry, Tim Legler, Steve "Snapper" Jones, and so forth were generally not perennial All-Stars. Of late, TNT has made a point to employ former studs (viz. Magic Johnson, Charles Barkley, Chris Webber, Reggie Miller) as studio or game announcers, but this an unusual innovation in the short history of television coverage of basketball. Past MVPs like Michael Jordan, Moses Malone, Larry Bird, Karl Malone, and David Robinson aren't in the TV game; they are running pro teams, running charter schools, or supporting Republican politics. Why, then, do a relatively larger fraction of great tennis players turn to TV shilling?

First, it may be that the tennis vets simply love the game more than the basketball greats do.

Second, tennis purses during the 1980s and 1990s were nowhere near the rich wages afford to NBA stars. Perhaps Martina and her ilk need the money.

Third, in an individual sport, there are fewer management roles available to retired stars. Michael Jordan can buy a team and Joe Dumars can build a roster, but what can Connors do? He could coach a player, as he did with Andy Roddick, but coaching in tennis is fairly low-profile (coaches are not even allowed to signal the player during a match!) and perhaps is a less fulfilling job than management in the NBA. Also, there is only one Davis Cup coach, and Patrick McEnroe held that job for the past ten years.

A contrarian take might say that basketball players are better trained to move on with the next phase of their lives, whether that be in business or philanthropy, while tennis players, having never attended college, don't know what to do with themselves other than remaining involved in the game. Here is another argument for my prior thesis that we need an NBA draft age limit.